Insane Alex Bregman contract ask easily puts Phillies out of the running

Ever since rumors surfaced that the Philadelphia Phillies have put third baseman Alec Bohm on the trade block this offseason, many have speculated who the Phillies could pursue as his potential replacement.

Among the rumors included the possibility of Philadelphia landing two-time All-Star free agent Alex Bregman. As a newly-crowned Gold Glove winner this past season, not only would he be a massive upgrade over Bohm at third defensively, but Bregman has the potential to transform the Phillies into an offensive juggernaut heading into the 2025 season.

As much as the Phillies and their faithful may dream of that happening, that dream may already be up in smoke after the latest projection of Bregman’s potential contract ask. Tim Britton of The Athletic had originally predicted a seven-year, $189 million contract (subscription required) for the star third baseman, which already seemed like a lot for someone who already has a lot of mileage.

Phillies are going to be out on free agent Alex Bregman after insane contract demand

However, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal believes that with the infamous Scott Boras as his agent, Bregman's contract should actually be closer to the 11-year, $350 million deal (subscription required) that Manny Machado signed for his extension with the San Diego Padres back during the 2022-23 offseason. Rosenthal further justified his case by highlighting the fact that the statistical comparison between Bregman and Machado is actually quite close.

If that is indeed the contract that the Phillies need to deal with, they could be already out of the running for Bregman before anything has even started.

First of all, if Philadelphia needs to blow that kind of money to land the stud third baseman, it doesn’t leave much, or perhaps even anything at all, to address their other offseason needs, including some much-needed outfield and bullpen help.

Secondly, with Bregman turning 31 by the start of the 2025 MLB season, any potential contract that would carry over into his 40s will certainly not age well. The Padres did the crazy thing with Machado, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies need to follow suit without carefully looking at the long-term picture.

More importantly, at least Machado had been relatively consistent with his production in recent years to somehow justify his contract for now. In Bregman's case, he has yet to replicate his numbers from his back-to-back 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI seasons that he had in 2018 and 2019. In fact, his overall offensive numbers even started to trend downward this past season, in particular, his runs scored (79), RBI (75), walks (44) and OPS (.768) totals.

Considering that Bregman also started 2024 enduring a major slump before managing to turn things around midseason, it could be a cause for concern for the Phillies who are looking for someone who will be consistently productive for a long time.

As a result, as enticing as adding a potential superstar to their lineup may be, the Phillies might be better off saving on the investment as Bregman’s prime may already be behind him. That way, they could wisely fill their other holes in the roster with legitimately strong options and give the team the best chance of winning.

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