What version of Aaron Nola can Phillies expect for stretch run after red-hot August?

With Red October beckoning, the Philadelphia Phillies have awoken from their mid-season slumber to take authoritative control of a playoff spot in the National League Wild Card hunt. Few pieces have been as instrumental, or as unexpected, to the team’s surge as Aaron Nola.

August has been a revolution for the veteran righty out of Baton Rouge, now in his age-33 season. From the beginning of 2025 through July 22, 2026, Nola slogged through 38 starts with an ERA of 5.91. His career was dead in the water not even three full seasons into a 7-year/$172 million deal.

But following a resurgent August, the Phillies will be asking bigger questions of their former ace; the man who averaged 5.2 IP per game over his last seven starts with a 2.50 ERA. 

Can Nola handle the intensity of the postseason?

Can he pitch with authority to someone other than Garrett Stubbs?

Can he continue his form into 2027?

Aaron Nola's metrics hint at regression, but how much?

Based on the underlying numbers, it’s probably unfair to expect Nola to maintain a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way. His FIP, even over the current hot stretch, is 4.24, and his left-on-base rate is an unsustainable 97.0%.

That said, Nola is inducing weaker contact and striking out more batters. His xwOBA over the last 100 hitters he has faced is .272. That’s the same figure Cristopher Sanchez posted across his entire 2025 campaign, and eight points lower than his season total this year. Furthermore, his average exit velocity is lower than Sanchez's or Jesus Luzardo’s since July 22.

More easily observable, Nola’s been consistently keeping his fastball down in the zone. Paired with Stubbs for six of his last seven starts, the catcher has been setting up his glove in the zone instead of on the ground. That return to high school basics has strengthened Nola’s fastball command.

“It feels pretty good,” Nola told Paul Casella of MLB.com of his recent stretch. “My pitches and command feel pretty nice right now.” 

Barring injury, there’s probably not a pathway to a start in a three-game Wild Card series for Nola. The Phillies three-headed monster atop the rotation of Sanchez, Luzardo, and Zack Wheeler is as good as any top three in baseball.

Come a longer series later in October, or when the rotation is more exhausted from a potential Wild Card series, the Phillies will have to lean on one of Nola or Andrew Painter. Both have shown far more quality down the stretch than they did at the beginning of the season, but one has a career 3.88 ERA in the playoffs, and the other is an untested rookie. Which arm would you choose to make a start in October?

Forgetting the postseason entirely, there’s hope for Nola as the calendar turns to 2027. The looming lockout may be a boon for the soon-to-be 34-year-old with nearly 2,000 innings on his right arm. A shorter season may do wonders for his longevity, especially after dealing with a long-term injury for the first time in 2025.

And, if MLB and the player’s union are able to come to terms and play a full season, the Phillies will take the lessons learned from this stretch and apply them to whoever catches Nola in the future.

Despite his declining fastball velocity, Nola still has a path to being an effective pitcher as he ages. Even during his rockiest stretches, he’s shown a remarkable ability to maintain effective availability. If Nola’s doesn’t quite live up to his $24.6 million AAV, there’s plenty of value in a back-of-the-rotation starter who takes the ball every fifth day and finishes the season as Nola is doing now.

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