The Philadelphia Phillies can be an infuriating team to watch. Whether it’s a sieve-like bullpen, braindead baserunning, little league defense, or a lineup that falls asleep at the drop of the hat, there are plenty of reasons to be down on their playoff chances. However, as aggravating as they can be, the Phillies remain a top-tier team in all of baseball, and if they can get a few breaks, they have a not-insignificant chance to finally win the World Series. So just what would that path look like?
The Phillies are built primarily on one thing: starting pitching. Their top trio of Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez can shut down any opposing lineup in October. Of course, there's a fresh caveat attached: Luzardo must be able to make it out unscathed from his recent bout of shoulder stiffness and resulting IL trip. If he does recover and make a standard-issue playoff start, they’re set up very well heading into a three-game Wild Card series. However, if any member of that three-headed monster falters, forget about it.
Assuming the starters are up to snuff, they’ll still need the offense to scratch across a few runs. Unfortunately, that proposition looks a bit dicey these days. The Phils have one of the most top-heavy lineups in the league with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber doing practically all of the heavy lifting.
Phillies' lineup could be the flaw in their World Series blueprint
Trade acquisition Luis Arraez has been fair to middling since coming over from the San Francisco Giants, while All-Star Brandon Marsh has completely cratered in the second half. Alec Bohm, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto have been non-entities despite having previous success in their careers, and rookie Justin Crawford has merely treaded water in his first season. One bright spot has been Bryson Stott, but his breakout consists of more decent than spectacular offensive production, while terrific defense and baserunning carry most of his value.
Simply put: It’s not a long lineup. The gameplan of every opposing manager is going to be throwing as many southpaws as he can at Schwarber and Harper and daring the Phillies’ right-handed hitters to do something about it. Luckily, they just might be able to. Turner hasn’t inspired much confidence with his dismal season, but the guy who won a batting title last season is still in there somewhere. A few hot weeks in October could make all the fans’ pain go away. Ditto for Bohm, who won’t be able to salvage his wretched season-long stats, but has been greatly improved over the last two months.
If Turner, Bohm, or anyone else in the Phillies’ lineup can make some noise in the postseason, it just might be enough alongside Schwarber and Harper to give the starters something to work with. They’re not going to fool anyone into thinking they’re the 1927 Yankees, but they might have just enough in them to grab some early leads.
And just who is going to protect those leads? Phillies fans have sweated plenty of bullets watching this bullpen over the course of the season, and manager Don Mattingly has yet to find a formula that works. Closer Jhoan Duran remains above reproach, but no one else has been able to establish themselves as trustworthy.
Diamond in the rough Jonathan Bowlan has looked more like cubic zirconia in recent weeks, while the ever-talented Orion Kerkering is far better off on a therapist’s couch than in a save situation. The entire lefty contingent of Tim Mayza, Brooks Raley, José Alvarado and Tanner Banks are varying degrees of wobbly. Alex McFarlane may be their best option, but the rookie has all of 15 big league appearances to his name; asking him to slam the door in the playoffs feels a bit like throwing him to the wolves.
And yet, there is a path to success there if one squints to see it. It all comes back to the starting pitching. If Wheeler, Luzardo and Sánchez (as well as Aaron Nola when needed) can pitch deep into games, that shrinks the amount of outs needed to be secured by non-Duran relievers. If the starters can each go seven frames (a tall ask to be sure, but without a doubt something they’re capable of), Mattingly will only need to ask his motley crew to give him three outs before Durantula time.
Imagine a few weeks’ worth of baseball in which Bowlan gets back on track, Alvarado figures out a way to locate his tremendous stuff, Kerkering finds a backbone and McFarlane keeps up his fantastic first act. Even just two of those four things taking place would suddenly give the Phils a strong bridge to Duran and the ability to protect any lead that the starters hand off.
The Phillies will need a lot of things to go right if they want to make a deep postseason run. They’ll need some heretofore disappointing players to step up their game while the stars that have been carrying them keep up the pace. Crucially, they’ll need to avoid shooting themselves in the foot with stupid errors and boneheaded mistakes. To anyone who’s watched this team for the past half-decade, that seems like asking for the moon.
Still, despite all their flaws, the Phillies are a supremely talented collection of baseball players. A dozen teams will be playing meaningful baseball in October and the Phillies are significantly better than more than a few of them. The Los Angeles Dodgers can’t win every World Series from now until the end of time, so why can’t the Phils play their best brand of baseball and catch some breaks at the same time? It seems unlikely, but it certainly could happen.
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