The Philadelphia Phillies may have thrown away their opportunity to win the division, but they're still in good shape to make the postseason as a Wild Card entrant. However, just making it to October is only part of the battle, and they still have plenty of trouble spots that could spell disaster if not managed properly. Let’s dive into what those weaknesses are and how, if at all, the Phils can overcome them.
4 biggest weaknesses Phillies must overcome in MLB playoffs
No. 4: Who’s going to catch Aaron Nola?
J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher the Phillies have by a country mile. The three-time All-Star is a shell of his formerly elite self at the plate, but he still grades out as a rock solid defender and has above average wheels. Even in his diminished capacity, the aging Realmuto’s .654 OPS on the year is leaps and bounds ahead of his two backups, Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán.
The easy decision would seem to be having Realmuto behind the plate for every playoff matchup, but there is one caveat that could change that. Future Phillies Wall of Famer Aaron Nola has been paired almost exclusively with Stubbs of late, and it’s led to a remarkable turnaround for the soft-tossing right-hander. It just might be worth the Phillies’ while to slot Stubbs in whenever Nola’s on the hill.
Ultimately, the Phils’ catching situation is somewhat of a sore spot whichever way they turn. They either roll with a franchise legend who just isn’t what he used to be, or split his playing time with a lifetime bench player whose greatest strength is curating Spotify playlists. Whoever ends up starting behind the plate, Phillies fans better pray they don’t take meaningful at-bats.
No. 3: Will Trea Turner (and others) protect the lefties?
Unfortunately, everyone who has watched the Phillies this year likely already knows the answer to this question. $300 million shortstop Trea Turner has been an absolute albatross this year and it’s killing his team. The two-time batting champion has just a .241 average across 597 at-bats this season with a career-worst .678 OPS.
Worse yet, the Phils’ lefty-laden lineup has been listing heavily due to their foremost righties' struggles. Turner, Realmuto and Alec Bohm have all disappointed greatly this season, allowing opponents to throw southpaw after southpaw at the Phillies’ lineup without fear of being beaten by opposite-handed hitters.
The Phils may be able to muddle through the regular season on the backs of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but playoff baseball means all hands on deck. If Turner and the rest of the right-handed contingent can’t do damage against lefties, it’ll make opposing managers’ jobs pretty easy.
No. 2: Which Luis Arraez will show up?
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had a disappointing trade deadline not due to making bad deals, but because he didn’t make enough deals. The two moves he did pull off were quite savvy, headlined by his acquisition of second baseman Luis Arraez from the San Francisco Giants.
A three-time (likely soon to be four) batting champion, Arraez adds a much-needed element of contact hitting to a boom-or-bust Phillies lineup. The only problem is that he hasn’t done much of anything since coming here.
In 37 games donning red pinstripes, Arraez has slashed .283/.301/.372 with just nine extra-base hits and 16 RBI. He’s put the bat on the ball plenty, having struck out only five times, but hasn’t done much with that contact.
If Arraez can get back to the .316 hitter he’s been for his career, or close to it, he should be a lethal run-producing machine out of the cleanup spot. On the other hand, if he continues to weakly slap the ball into the ground, the Phils’ feast-or-famine offense may end up going hungry.
No. 1: Who is going to get the ball to Jhoan Duran?
The Phillies have one of the most top-heavy rosters in baseball. Elite talents like Schwarber and Harper are flanked by barely-useful role players like Bohm and Justin Crawford. The same applies to the pitching staff, where a dynamite rotation of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo (in addition to the resurgent Nola and Andrew Painter) are followed by top-tier closer Jhoan Duran. Unfortunately, just about everyone else in the bullpen is untrustworthy.
Free agent addition Brad Keller is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, last year’s villain Orion Kerkering has completely devolved into madness, José Alvarado pours gasoline onto every fire he’s asked to extinguish, and even trade steal Jonathan Bowlan has been leaking oil in recent weeks. In short: it’s really bad.
The only realistic plan the Phillies can have is to get as many outs as they can from their starters before handing the ball to Duran. Four, five and even six-out saves may become the norm for the workhorse reliever in October.
Bowlan and rookie Alex McFarlane are probably the two most viable options after Duran, but that bridge could become pretty rickety against teams like the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies will need to shorten every game as much as they can by squeezing every single out from their starters because as soon as the bullpen phone rings, it’s time to start panicking.
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