Philadelphia Phillies head honcho Dave Dombrowski made some nice moves ahead of Monday’s 6:00 PM EST trade deadline. In fact, by most accounts he didn’t make a single bad move. A hitting machine second baseman and a lefty bullpen specialist headlined a solid quartet of additions. Unfortunately, what began as an excellent start failed to materialize into truly addressing the club’s myriad holes.
Phillies acquire Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian from San Francisco Giants for Ramon Marquez (MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 prospect) and Marty Gair. GRADE: B
As Bryce Harper so eloquently put it, the Phillies’ offense needs help. Brandon Marsh has fallen on hard times after a breakout first half, leaving Harper and Kyle Schwarber as the team's only consistently productive hitters. The three-time batting champion Arraez gives them the best tablesetter in the sport, and adds some much-needed length to the lineup. Not to be overlooked is Kilian, the breakout 29-year-old reliever who could see high-leverage work if he continues at this pace.
As for the package going back to San Fran, it hurts to see Marquez go. The 20-year-old came out of nowhere to post a 1.68 ERA in 59 innings this year across two minor league levels, and is generating some buzz as a potential top-100 prospect. The 23-year-old Gair has posted middling results in the low minors this season, but could become a middle relief option for the Giants in a year or two.
Parting with a budding top-of-the-rotation arm in Marquez for a half-season of Arraez is a steep price to pay, but no other bat on the trade market could singlehandedly improve the Phillies’ offense as much as he does. With the team’s championship window rapidly closing, overpaying a bit for a much-needed reinforcement is perfectly acceptable.
Phillies acquire Brooks Raley from New York Mets for John Spikerman (No. 27) and Luke Gabrysh. GRADE: A-
The Phillies have been desperate for a left-handed reliever all year, as the formerly elite José Alvarado has completely imploded, journeyman Tim Mayza has burned out, and depth option Kyle Backhus belongs in the minors. The inability to play matchups in late innings has made the bridge to lights-out closer Jhoan Duran quite rickety.
In steps veteran southpaw Brooks Raley, who is in the midst of a career year at the age of 38. The longtime Met has fired 41 ⅓ innings of 1.96 ERA ball, punching out 40 batters and walking just 15. The impending free agent immediately becomes interim manager Don Mattingly’s top lefty setup option.
Dave Dombrowski's deadline featured some nice moves; just not nearly enough of them
The price to get Raley was surprisingly cheap, as New York was satisfied with back-end top-30 prospect John Spikerman and local kid Luke Gabrysh. A 2024 draftee, Spikerman is a classic speed and defense merchant fourth outfielder. Gabrysh may be a cool story as a St. Joe’s product, but he’s struggled in High-A this year and looks like little more than organizational depth.
Phillies acquire Colby Thomas from Athletics for Seth Johnson. GRADE: C+
The Phillies lined up with the Athletics for a classic swap of underperforming youngsters, reeling in outfielder Colby Thomas in exchange for right-hander Seth Johnson. This one isn’t a needlemover for either side, as Thomas has ridden the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors, while Johnson has done little to impress in his current big league opportunity.
The 25-year-old Thomas provides an excellent glove and terrific speed, but hasn’t hit a lick in 104 career games, posting an ugly .214/.252/.376 slash line. His excellent .285/.360/.546 line across three Triple-A seasons lends some optimism, and the Phils can use all the upside they can get. Thomas is in the first of three minor league option years, meaning they can shuffle him back and forth as needed.
As for Johnson, that experiment seemed to have run its course. The 2019 first-round pick has a tragic 5.51 ERA over 16 big league appearances this season, and his lifetime 7.18 mark is even more ghastly. The 27-year-old has always flashed decent stuff, but the Phillies can’t wait around to see if he can unlock it. Cashing Johnson in for some outfield depth is certainly better than watching him throw away more leads.
Phillies acquire Manuel Colon from Kansas City Royals for Nolan Hoffman. GRADE: C-
Honestly, who cares? Depth reliever Nolan Hoffman has worked to a decent 3.76 ERA in eight minor league seasons, but has all of four major league appearances to his credit. Just a week away from turning 29 years old, Hoffman is far from a prospect and is certainly not part of the Phillies’ long-term future.
In exchange for Hoffman, the Phils picked up 19-year-old reliever Manuel Colon. The Dominican made his stateside debut this season, but has been blitzed for a 5.83 ERA between rookie ball and Low-A. There’s always the chance that they could unlock something in him, but he’s most likely just organizational filler.
Overall Grade: D
The problem with Dave Dombrowski’s trade deadline was not the moves that he did make. Each one of them is not only justifiable, but could be considered a win for the franchise. Instead, the issue lies in moves that were not made. Quality players were flying off the shelves all weekend, and yet Dombrowski was content to add sparingly to his porous roster.
The Phillies desperately needed a decent outfielder, a right-handed hitting one at that, and the Seattle Mariners scooped up Taylor Ward for a bag of balls. Why was Dombrowski not in on that? The top-heavy starting rotation has a pair of scheduled losses in the fourth and fifth spots, and solid options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman went for decent, but not exorbitant, packages. The Phillies are still stuck with the corpse of Aaron Nola and whatever Andrew Painter decides to be.
The Phillies are better on Monday night than they were on Sunday, but they’re still not good enough. Trading for Arraez has displaced one-third of the starting lineup, shifting the slick-fielding Bryson Stott over to third base, while nobody’s favorite Alec Bohm sucks his thumb at first, and fans cross their fingers that Bryce Harper doesn’t get hurt playing the outfield.
Arraez undoubtedly gives them another quality bat at the top of the lineup, but in reality they needed two or three to feel good about their postseason chances. A lineup featuring only four or five black holes is not a marked improvement over one that had five or six 24 hours ago. The Phillies are staring up in the standings at clubs like the Braves, Cubs, and of course the Dodgers, all of whom did far more at the deadline to widen the gap.
Dombrowski’s Phillies don’t have many more bites at the apple before the overpaid, rapidly aging core bottoms out. He could have gone all-in to maximize this year’s chances before that happens. Unfortunately, another far too early playoff exit seems all too likely.
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