The most anticipated move of the offseason finally went down on Sunday night when outfielder Juan Soto and the rival New York Mets agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract. The 26-year-old superstar's market included a number of contenders, with the Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays all caught in a bidding war to land the four-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion.
While Soto never seemed to be a legit target of the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, the Phillies have recently been connected to the growing list of teams interested in signing Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. After months of rumors and speculation, the New York Post's Jon Heyman reported that Sasaki's NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, had finally posted the hard-throwing 23-year-old right-hander on Monday, a procedural move that allows him to become an international free agent and eligible to sign with interested MLB teams this winter.
Sasaki may not sign a contract during the closed period beginning at 5 p.m. (ET) on December 15 and ending at 9 a.m. (ET) on January 15. https://t.co/yP5vCFLTpe
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2024
But unlike the markets for recently signed free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Willy Adames, it's going to be a little while before we know exactly where Sasaki will sign. That has less to do with the potential for an all-out bidding war and more to do with MLB's shifting business calendar. With the free agent pitching market thinning out at a rapid pace, the Phillies and other MLB teams could be in a waiting game heading into the New Year.
Phillies' track record makes being a 'favorite' for Roki Sasaki feel like smoke and mirrors
Before we get into when and where Sasaki will sign after being posted on Monday, a recent report by Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic examined the teams considered most likely to sign Sasaki this offseason (subscription required). As we've seen with the trade market for coveted White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, new teams can jump into the mix at any time, but for now, Sammon and Rosenthal have the field of suitors for Sasaki down to seven teams.
"The Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs are viewed in the industry as among the early favorites to land Sasaki," according to Sammon and Rosenthal.
Unsurprisingly, the Phillies have quite a bit of competition for Sasaki from six of MLB's highest-salaried ball clubs. While a lot of money will certainly change hands when Sasaki and his representatives do make that choice, Sasaki's age and designation as an amateur international free agent affect how much Sasaki can be paid and, more importantly, when he will make his free agent decision.
While Sasaki is free to sign with any ball club after being posted, his signing would fall under the 2024 international signing period, and despite the Los Angeles Dodgers (Sasaki's rumored destination) having the highest remaining international bonus pool money, the 2025 international signing period resets next month on Jan. 15, with all 30 MLB teams having more bonus pool money to offer the Japanese superstar. According to Sammon and Rosenthal, other factors will influence where Sasaki signs this offseason.
"Sasaki will likely prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development," wrote Sammon and Rosenthal.
Despite having a reported $6,261,600 in bonus pool money to spend, the Phillies could be on the outside looking in if Sasaki's desire to play on the West Coast and alongside fellow Japanese superstars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the main selling point. With a poor track record of success signing Japanese born free agents in the past, it's looking more likely that this will be a streak that continues for the Phillies this offseason.
That probably explains the Phillies' aggressiveness on the trade market so far this winter. It was recently revealed that the Phillies and Mariners had exploratory talks involving Alec Bohm being dealt for right-handed pitchers Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. The Mariners quickly shot that down, and the Phillies will either have to add to the Mariners' return or simply move along.
The same goes for the Phillies in their pursuit of Crochet. A recent story from Bob Nightengale suggests that the Phillies offered the White Sox Bohm and the team's top outfield prospect, Justin Crawford, with the White Sox considering the Phillies trade package not enough to complete a deal. With the White Sox seeking to get a trade for Crochet completed by the end of this week's Winter Meetings, time is running out if trading for the young southpaw remains the Phillies' No.1 offseason goal.
With Sasaki likely to sign between the short window of Jan. 15-23, the Phillies can either wait out Sasaki's decision or move along elsewhere for rotation help. With other key rivals stocking up on talent recently, the Phillies might be best served signing or acquiring a pitcher well before that window comes to a close next month.