The newest Japanese free agent, Roki Sasaki, isn't even posted to Major League Baseball yet, but the 23-year-old pitcher has already taken over the offseason headlines. There doesn't seem to be any doubt about the top-tier quality of his stuff, so 30 MLB teams will be in on the bidding.
Sasaki, "The Monster of the Reiwa Era," posted a 2.02 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over four seasons in Japan. He rode a nasty arsenal that includes a fastball that hits triple digits, a ridiculous splitter and a slider to an 11.4 K/9 while walking just 91 batters in 414 2/3 innings for a 2.0 BB/9.
The Phillies will have a tough time convincing Roki Sasaki to come to Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Phillies will be interested in signing Sasaki, obviously, but there are already a number of factors working against the reigning NL East champions. From early speculation about Sasaki's arrival in North America, it sounds like the Phillies are already out of the running, and here are three reasons why.
Money might be an issue for the Phillies
It's not the size of Sasaki's contract that will be a problem but the resources the Phillies have left in their international bonus pool for the 2024 period. Not yet 25 years old and without six years of service time in a foreign league, Sasaki is restricted to how much he can sign for and falls under the purview of MLB's international amateur signing bonus pool rules.
Money will be an obvious issue for many teams if Sasaki posts before Dec. 2, the Phillies being one of those clubs, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
"If Sasaki posts before Dec. 2, he can only sign during the 2024 international amateur signing period since a 45-day negotiating window would expire before the '25 signing period begins," Zolecki writes. "The Phillies have only $42,200 in their ‘24 pool, which isn’t good. But if Sasaki posts between Dec. 2-15, he can sign during either period."
The Phillies will have to hope that the posting doesn't happen until after Dec. 2, when Sasaki can sign during either the 2024 period or the 2025 period. They have $6,261,000 in their international bonus pool for 2025.
The geography doesn't work in the Phillies' favor
Another factor working against the Phillies is geography. Being on the East Coast immediately puts them behind the favorites, with Sasaki rumored to prefer a team on the West Coast, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand.
"One source said the teams most likely to have a shot at Sasaki are West Coast clubs and those that have signed Japanese players in the past," Feinsand says. "Aside from the Dodgers and Padres, the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers were among those mentioned by executives."
While there's nothing the Phillies can do about where Philadelphia sits on the map, they can still try to sell themselves. Will Sammon of The Athletic outlined the items on Sasaki's speculative wishlist (subscription required).
"But once the sweepstakes begin for his services, Sasaki will likely prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development," Sammon says.
According to Feinsand, one unnamed AL executive believes the size of the payroll won't be the determining factor for Sasaki's landing spot. However, it still won't be a "level playing field" because not every organization can fulfill every item on its wishlist.
The Phillies' track record of signing Japanese players is a problem
The Phillies' track record, or lack thereof, of signing players straight from Japan is an issue. They have never inked a player directly from the NPB. It's not like they've never tried. They famously missed out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter despite laying a big offer on the table.
They also don't currently feature any Japanese players on the roster. The Dodgers, one of the perceived favorites (of course they are), boast global superstar Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto. Oh, and they'll also have a shiny new World Series trophy to show off.
It sounds like the San Diego Padres might have an inside track, however, with 38-year-old Japanese legend Yu Darvish involved, per ESPN's Jeff Passan. Shockingly, Ohtani might not be the most enticing potential teammate for Sasaki. As Clark Fahrenthold of the Coronado Eagle & Journal reports, Darvish has been a mentor to Sasaki, and they have the same agent. Darvish even helped Sasaki with his slider.
I think the Padres have a legit shot at Roki Sasaki.
— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) November 9, 2024
Mainly because of how close Sasaki & Yu Darvish are.
➡️Share the same Agent
➡️Darvish helped Sasaki develop his Slider
It's well documented that Darvish has been a huge mentor to Sasakipic.twitter.com/DPBHalrkIP
When it comes down to it, it feels like this offseason's Sasaki sweepstakes will be another whiff for the Phillies. They're likely better off focusing their attention on a starting pitcher already in MLB, whether it be via trade or through free agency.
The hottest free agent pitcher will likely end up in the NL West, as far as we can tell at this point. Although, stranger things have happened.