With the Philadelphia Phillies kicking off their 2026 campaign with the first day of spring training on Wednesday, we already got some not-so-great news before training camp even opened. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson spoke to media on Monday and gave us an update on Zack Wheeler's status heading into the spring.
Wheeler has spent the offseason recovering from September surgery for venous thoracic outlet syndrome. We've received sporadic updates on his progression over the winter. Unfortunately, they were mostly notes like "He's throwing from such and such a distance" and "Things are progressing well."
But on Monday we got a more firm idea about Wheeler's timeline to return to game action. As we expected, the 35-year-old ace won't be ready for Opening Day. While that's disappointing, there was good news, a silver lining if you will, as Thomson did say that he expects Wheeler won't be "too far behind that."
In that case, the Phillies will have to put Wheeler on the 15-day IL to begin the season. The earliest he would be able to return to the rotation would be sometime around the end of the second week of April. Whether that will happen remains to be seen and will likely depend on how Wheeler reacts to ramping up throughout spring training.
So now that we know for sure that Wheeler won't be with the Phillies on Opening Day, here's what we think the starting five will look like.
Projecting Phillies rotation with Zack Wheeler not returning for Opening Day
No. 1: Cristopher Sánchez
Naming Cristopher Sánchez the Opening Day starter feels like the obvious move. The lefty ascended to ace status last year, stepping up in Wheeler's absence. He posted career bests with a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 202 innings over 32 starts. Sánchez will pitch in the World Baseball Classic, so the Phillies will need to make sure his workload lines up to be ready to pitch on March 26, but that should already be in their gameplan.
No. 2: Jesús Luzardo
Right on Sánchez's heel comes Jesús Luzardo, who proved he can be among the best starters with a fully healthy season. Outside of a rough couple of starts thanks to a pitch-tipping issue, Luzardo was everything the Phillies were hoping he'd be when trading for him last winter. He had a 3.92 ERA and posted career bests with 15 wins and 216 strikeouts in 183 2/3 innings.
No. 3: Aaron Nola
The Phillies need Aaron Nola to bounceback from a dreadful 2025 season. Around spending three months on the injured list, Nola posted a career-worst 6.01 ERA in 17 starts. He did show something in the final month with a 3.91 ERA over his final four starts. Nola's still just 32, so there should be plenty left in the tank, at least that's what we're all hoping to see.
No. 4: Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker will be pressed into rotation service to begin the year. The veteran right-hander spent time in the rotation last year, posting a 4.25 ERA over 21 starts. He finished the season with a 4.08 ERA, a much more respectable number than his 7.10 mark in 2024. The Phillies will try to squeeze everything they can out of Walker in his final year under contract before saying goodbye.
No. 5: Andrew Painter
Prospect Andrew Painter will round out the starting five. The Phillies expect the 22-year-old to earn a starting job this spring, thanks to a fixed arm slot that was the cause of all his problems last season. In his first year back after Tommy John surgery, Painter got roughed up in Triple-A to the tune of a 5.40 ERA in 106 2/3 innings. He stayed healthy and threw 118 innings total so the Phillies will have to monitor his workload later in the season.