Predicting the Phillies' statistical leaders for 2025

Whether you're into fantasy sports or are merely just into statistical analysis, it's always a fun exercise to project how individual players will fare for an upcoming season versus not only the rest of the league but among their teammates. It may be a pretty cut and dry exercise for some teams around Major League Baseball, but the Philadelphia Phillies offer a number of good candidates who "stuff the stat sheet" and could potentially lead the club in 2025 in various categories.

In 2024, the Phillies broke out the lumber to finish third in the National League in run scoring and fifth in home runs. Kyle Schwarber was the main performer who got them there, leading the team in both home runs (38) and RBI (104). On the basepaths, Bryson Stott was able to partially salvage his down season with 32 thefts to lead the team.

Among the pitchers, Zack Wheeler's Cy Young-worthy campaign saw him lead Phillies pitchers in wins (16) and strikeouts (224). And it was José Alvarado who led the club with a mere 13 saves as the Phillies spread their save opportunities around.

Predicting the Phillies' statistical leaders for 2025

As we set the stage for 2025, let's take a look at some of the major statistical categories and prognosticate which Phillies will come out on top in each one.

Home Runs

Schwarber has paced the Phillies in home runs three years running, representing the entirety of his tenure with the team, and he's exceedingly hard to pick against in 2025. Bryce Harper would figure to be his biggest competition here, as he was the last non-Kyle to lead the team in home runs (35 HR in 2021). Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner could also be within shouting distance, but we probably shouldn't overthink this one.

Pick: Schwarber

RBI

You might think that RBI would go hand in hand with home runs, but that isn't necessarily the case, as Nick Castellanos actually held an RBI edge over Schwarber (106-104) in 2023 despite being outhomered 47-29. Schwarber is also a bit hampered due to the team's insistence of having him bat out of the leadoff spot in the order, which naturally limits his RBI opportunities in not only his first plate appearance of the game but in subsequent at-bats when he follows the bottom of the order.

Alec Bohm looked primed for a breakout 2024 before a second-half swoon saw him cede the RBI lead to Schwarber (104-97). And Harper and Castellanos will always be lurking, with Trea Turner entering the chat as a wild card (62 RBI in 121 games). We'll look to two-time MVP Harper on this one, as his primo lineup spot will ultimately offer him more quality chances to knock in runs than Schwarber's will over the long haul.

Pick: Harper

Stolen Bases

As mentioned, Bryson Stott led the team in steals last year, which was his second straight year atop the club. And he did it despite an overall drop in performance at the plate, as he took advantage of his times on base. He figures to have another 30+ steal season in him if he can return to 2023 form and remains aggressive on the bases.

Johan Rojas should also collect a fair amount of steals if he is afforded enough playing time, and Brandon Marsh will be looking to build on last year's career-high total of 19. All this being said, I am looking at Turner, who had 30 steals in 2023 and 19 steals last year despite missing a quarter of the season. He's on the wrong side of 30 now, but if his health holds up, he should be able to edge Stott's total.

Pick: Turner

Wins

Pitching wins are so fickle, as they don't accurately represent a hurler's value over the course of the year. Just look at 2023 when the Phillies were led by — wait for it — Taijuan Walker and his 15 wins. Ugh.

Once again, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola would be the obvious choices, given that they are both workhorses who take the ball each turn through the rotation and put the club in a position to win almost every time. In all honesty, though, the entire rest of the presumptive Phillies rotation to start the season is in play here.

So let's select a man who started just one fewer game than Wheeler and two fewer games than Nola last year, who finished top-10 in innings pitched in the National League, and whose FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was actually lower than Wheeler's.

Pick: Cristopher Sánchez

Saves

The Phillies' re-made bullpen offers some interesting choices to lead the club in saves, and one wonders if Rob Thomson will truly commit to a closer or go with more of a matchup-oriented/"hot hand" approach. One thing is for sure: it will be absolutely shocking if last year's saves leader, José Alvarado, leads the club again in 2025.

Better candidates would be holdovers Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering and new addition Jordan Romano, who offers "shiny new toy" possibilities after the team signed him to a one-year deal. Romano is a two-time all-star with over 100 career saves under his belt, so he seems like the best bet here.

In the most likely scenario, Kerkering still retains the "potential closer of the future" label and only nets a handful of saves, while Strahm is the high-leverage man who almost always gets used in the seventh and eighth innings. This leaves Romano, assuming health, to be the main man for the last three outs the majority of the time.

Pick: Romano

Strikeouts

Strikeouts are a measure of stuff plus volume, and so it would appear to be a two-horse race here between Wheeler and Nola. In fact, they've been the Phillies' two top K artists in each of the last four seasons, with Wheeler having the edge in three of those years.

All things being equal, 2025 should play out in largely the same fashion, as neither has shown any signs of regression yet. It just seems as though Wheeler is able to get that one extra strikeout each time through the rotation, and that should make for a slim margin to give him the category edge over Nola.

Pick: Wheeler

The regular season will be fun once again, with the Phils looking to punch their fourth straight ticket to the playoffs in 2025. It will be interesting to track the internal competition along the way, but ultimately all that matters are team wins and playing ball deep into October so that the team can finish the job it has been dancing around for several years.

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