Which Phillies should claim the last two bullpen spots if the season started today?
With most of the bullpen solidified, the Phillies have a handful of options to round out their bullpen. Who should earn the last two spots?
As the days go on and spring training approaches, the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen moves closer to being set. While there are some big names and underrated contributors still out there that Dave Dombrowski might make a move on, the majority of the pitching staff is likely already etched in stone.
However, the last couple of spots in the bullpen are up for grabs. Manager Rob Thomson will have to really scrutinize the final options, which will likely come down to the final days of spring training.
The (likely) confirmed bullpen arms are José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman, and Orion Kerkering. Assuming the Phillies break camp with 13 pitchers, five of which will be starters, that leaves two more spots in the bullpen up for grabs.
Andrew Bellatti, Dylan Covey, Connor Brogdon, and Yunior Marte are all in the running to grab the last two coveted spots on the Opening Day roster. Newly acquired Kolby Allard will throw his hat in the ring, but that seems like a long shot.
So, if the season started today, who should the Phillies pick to fill the final spots in the bullpen?
Option 1: Yunior Marte
Let’s start with Yunior Marte, who likely has the smallest chance of earning one of the spots. The 28-year-old right-hander had glimpses of really good stuff in 2023, but unfortunately, those glimpses were short-lived. He pitched in 40 games and finished with a 5.03 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 1.627 WHIP, which simply won’t cut it at the major league level.
His 97.7 mph fastball/sinker velocity ranks in the 95th percentile, but he has trouble missing bats with just a 25 percent whiff rate and a 20.9 percent strikeout rate. His slider, which he throws 44.1 percent of the time, is an effective “out” pitch with a 36.4 percent whiff rate. But when batters connected on it, they did damage, slugging .500.
Marte stepped in admirably in 2023 when the injury bug hit the bullpen and Thomson needed help. He even locked down two saves. That being said, if the 2024 team relies on Marte for high-volume and high-leverage spots, it is safe to say something has gone wrong. It's hard to see him adding much value to the 2024 team.
Option 2: Connor Brogdon
Connor Brogdon is an interesting option as a bullpen piece. In 2022, he pitched in 47 games and ended the season with a respectable 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.43 FIP. He even pitched 8 2/3 innings in the 2022 World Series postseason run.
2023 was a completely different story. He totaled just 29 total innings and none after June 4. He was sent down in favor of some other arms and never regained the trust of the front office or found his footing in the minors.
Brogdon features a changeup, four-seamer, and cutter. His changeup, which he throws 42.5 percent of the time, had an xBA of .174 in 2023 — much better than his four-seamer, which had a .335 xBA. If pitching coach Caleb Cotham has anything to say about it, we'll likely see the right-hander start to throw his cutter a little more and rely on his changeup as an out pitch to keep batters off balance.
Brogdon has the repertoire to hold on to a major league roster spot; it’s just a matter of whether he can harness and control it. If he has a good spring training and proves to Thompson that he can keep batters at bay, there’s a real possibility he'll be given one of the last two bullpen spots.
NEXT: Dylan Covey, Andrew Bellatti, and the final verdict on who should get the final bullpen spots.
Option 3: Dylan Covey
Dylan Covey, 32, is one of the biggest conundrums for the Phillies coming into 2024. Signed off waivers in May 2023, he ended May with a 7.45 ERA. It couldn't have been much worse of a first month for the right-hander.
But as the year progressed and he became more comfortable in his role, Covey became someone who could be trusted. From Aug. 26 to his last appearance in the regular season on Sept 27, he allowed just one earned run over 12 innings while striking out seven and not allowing a home run. He lowered his ERA to 3.77 and was a legitimate option for the Phillies.
Covey is a ground ball pitcher and relies on his sinker to keep hitters off balance and get weak contact. He throws his sinker 41.4 percent of the time, leading to a 53.5 percent ground ball rate, one of the highest in baseball. On the flip side, his strikeout and whiff rates are at the bottom of the league at 15.7 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively. He can be dependent on the defense behind him, which may be seen as risky by the front office.
If Covey can replicate his end-of-year performance, it might be enough to earn him a spot on the 2024 major league roster.
Option 4: Andrew Bellatti
The last option for the last two spots is Andrew Bellatti. Similar to Brogdon, Bellatti was a big contributor in 2022, appearing in 59 games with a 3.31 ERA, 2.87 FIP and 1.325 WHIP. He also appeared in seven innings during the 2022 postseason allowing just one earned run.
But his 2023 didn’t go as planned. He appeared in just 27 games, with a very high 5.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He couldn’t find a rhythm at the major league level and hold onto the consistent role he was trusted in.
The 32-year-old right-hander relies mostly on two pitches, his 94 mph fastball (47.5 percent) and his 86 mph slider (47.1 percent). According to Baseball Savant, he's in the upper echelon of MLB pitchers with a 33.5 percent chase rate and 33.9 percent whiff rate.
However, his strikeout rate is low at 22.1 percent, and his walk rate is on the higher side for a relief pitcher at 10.6 percent. As a relief pitcher, it typically bodes well to be able to strike batters out and limit the free passes. His 4.80 xERA and .266 xBA are not ideal.
Bellatti is a pitcher who the Phillies coaching staff may see value in because of his slider/fastball mix from the right side. He has major league experience and has proven that he can contribute to winning in the past.
Who should be in the Phillies bullpen?
In reality, the Phillies will wait as long as possible in spring training to decide which reliever options will take the final two spots. With the possibility that the Phillies will dip into the free agent market to shore up the bullpen, there could be more arms in the mix by the end of March.
But if the season started today, the Phillies should choose Dylan Covey, based on his late-season resurgence, and the upside of Connor Brogdon. Having those two arms fill the last two spots in the bullpen would be a great addition and give Rob Thompson and Caleb Cotham the best options to fill out the relief corps.
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