It is no secret that the Philadelphia Phillies have been inconsistent since the All-Star break. One minute the sky is falling, the next the club seems to be "back." It has been a cycle.
As Major League Baseball begins to wind down the regular season in the coming weeks, each contending team will look to enter October with some momentum. The Phillies could gain that in the return of some of their injured players, and perhaps most notably with Ranger Suárez set to rejoin the rotation this coming Saturday in Kansas City.
What version of Ranger Suárez do the Phillies need when he returns?
Suárez has been on the injured list since July 24 with lower back tightness. Prior to his injury, the left-hander had struggled in the month of July, posting a 6.61 ERA in three starts. Perhaps his back soreness — which caused him to miss his first All-Star game — played a factor in some of those struggles.
Prior to his rough July, Suárez was arguably the Phillies' best starting pitcher. Through June 30, the 28-year-old had a 2.27 ERA over 72 frames. He was also the National League Pitcher of the Month for March/April.
Do the Phillies need their left-hander to replicate his dominant first three months to make a deep postseason run? While it would certainly be welcome, sustained success like that is difficult to repeat. The club will be just fine if Suárez can help steady the ship and keep his team in games.
Looking at his career numbers, it is difficult to believe that Suárez can sustain his April and May success. As a starter, he has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 in his Phillies career. These numbers are good, and any team would take a number three starter to put up those stats.
However, it was always likely that Suárez would regress toward his career mean as the season dragged on. The good news for the Phillies is that his averages over the course of his time in the majors are better than many other pitchers around the game.
Since the All-Star break, the Phillies rotation has been a middle-of-the-road pitching staff. They rank 14th in ERA (4.29), 12th in innings pitched (159 1/3), and 21st in WHIP (1.32). Adding Suárez to a rotation with a healthy Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez would help send the club's starting staff back in the right direction.
The Phillies need Suárez to be solid and be himself. Yes, a sub-3.00 ERA would be even better, but if he can pitch around his career average, the rotation will be much improved.
The offense should (hopefully) start clicking soon and the bullpen needs to hold a lead or minimize a deficit. As the season enters the final month or so, the club needs to start firing on all cylinders. A healthy Suárez would go a long way in that regard.