How worried should we be about Ranger Suárez’s sudden reversal of fortune?

What's wrong with Ranger Suárez?

The Philadelphia Phillies left-handed pitcher spent the first three months of the MLB season on a dominant run that had many fans and baseball insiders placing Suárez's name into the all-to-early discussion for NL CY Young consideration. Then, out of nowhere, Suárez's season came crashing back to Earth.

Recently named to the NL All-Star team, Suárez's effectiveness has fallen off considerably since June, and his last eight starts have him trending in the wrong direction. After beginning the season 9-0 with a 1.36 ERA over his first 10 starts, Suárez has gone 1-3 over his last eight with a 4.50 ERA.

How worried should we be about Ranger Suárez’s sudden reversal of fortune?

Suárez's struggles over his most recent two starts are a cause for concern, considering he's allowed 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

It begs the question. Were Suárez's first 10 starts a complete fluke, or is something physically wrong that explains why he has shown this regression over the last six weeks

Before we hit the panic button, it's worth a reminder that his 10-3 record and 2.58 ERA remain among the best in all of MLB. While some have speculated that his struggles could be the result of having been struck on his left hand by a 106.1 mph line drive during a start against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 1, Phillies manager Rob Thomson seemingly put that speculation to rest when speaking to NBC Sports Philadelphia's Cory Seidman following Saturday's 5-1 loss against the Atlanta Braves.

"I think there's probably a little bit of fatigue and I think there is with all our guys," Thomson explained, per Seidman. "But I don't think it's a concern. None of the numbers that we measure are really jumping out at us."

It's easy to forget that Suárez is likely to achieve a new career high in innings pitched at some point this summer. Currently sitting at 108 innings pitched through his first 18 starts, his 155 1/3 innings in 2022 stands as the highest total of his career. Could some rest over the All-Star break be just what the lefty needs to get back on track in the second half?

Does Suárez miss J.T. Realmuto?

While fatigue could be a factor, it should be noted that Suárez had a record of 10-1 with an ERA of 1.81 during his first 13 starts, all with J.T. Realmuto behind the plate.

In his five starts since Realmuto was placed on the IL in June, Suárez is 0-2 with three no-decisions with Rafael Marchán behind the plate. In those five starts without Realmuto, Suárez has seen his ERA jump from 1.81 to 2.58. Could a comfort level with Realmuto's game calling be a factor in the recent struggles?

It will be interesting to see how Thomson handles Suárez ahead of the All-Star break. He's not officially listed as Friday's starter at this time, so it's possible that Thomson wants the first-time All-Star to be lined up to pitch an inning during next week's Summer Classic. But with a weekend series against the 35-59 Oakland Athletics to finish the first half, Thomson could give Suárez a rest and go with a bullpen game.

One way or another, Suárez is a solid bet to turn things around when the second half of the season starts next week.