The untouchables: 4 top prospects Phillies definitely need to keep off the trade block

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare for the 2024 MLB season, they plan to make some moves during the offseason to help bolster their roster and aim to have a shot again at a World Series championship that has eluded them for the past two seasons.

They have already completed their first significant move by bringing back team ace Aaron Nola on a huge seven-year deal worth $172 million. They have also made a couple of minor league deals on the side to add further depth to their system. 

However, the Phillies don’t appear to be done yet as they look to continue to retool their lineup in a determined attempt to improve their chances from last season. If they don't find their potential solution in free agency, they could ultimately turn towards exploring the trade route to address their needs. 

If they do proceed in that direction, more than likely it will require the use of some of their prized assets in the form of top prospects in the organization as trade bait. However, at the same time, the Phillies probably don’t want to deplete their system to jeopardize their future success. Which of their prospects should be deemed untouchable this offseason?

Here are four top prospects in the Phillies’ system that they should keep away from trade talks at all costs. Losing any of these players could potentially come back to haunt them in a big way in the not-so-distant future.

Orion Kerkering, RP, No. 7 prospect

Let's start with the phenom who made his MLB debut right at the end of the season with the big league club Orion Kerkering.

Despite being just a fifth-round draft pick of the Phillies from the recent 2022 MLB Draft, Kerkering has already taken great strides in his growth and development over the past two years. In fact, he has had perhaps one of the greatest ascensions in team history. In his 2023 season, he made it through four minor league levels and ultimately went right into the majors and subsequently into the playoffs for good measure.

How was he able to accomplish such a feat?

Relying primarily on a devastating sweeping slider and his deceptive delivery has brought him great success. In his 2023 minor league season, he compiled an impressive 1.51 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP, giving up only nine earned runs all year with 79 punchouts in just 53 2/3 innings pitched. He even fared well and didn't look out of place with the Phillies in the playoffs until things unraveled a bit for him during the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Nevertheless, Kerkering showed great promise and aims to be part of the big league bullpen for the 2024 season. With his skills and talent level, he could potentially even be the heir to the Phillies’ closer role in the near future with the way he exudes confidence and composure.

With the Phillies losing their 2023 closer to free agency, they may already have their future solution in place. The key now is to make sure they don’t deal him away and see him become an All-Star reliever elsewhere.

Justin Crawford, OF, No. 3 prospect

Currently ranked within the top three of the Phillies’ top MLB prospects, Justin Crawford has the makings to become a formidable five-tool player, just like his four-time All-Star father, Carl.

The fact that he is also currently the organization’s top-ranked positional prospect despite having only played as high as High-A level speaks volumes of his abilities and potential. His obvious strengths are his lightning speed, coming in with a grade of 70, exceptional defense and arm, with a grade of 60, and solid contact-hitting skills.

Even with his weakness being mainly his power, many believe that it will come over time when his body fills out, and he tightens up his swing during the growth and development of his game.

For the 2023 season, Crawford split time between Single-A Clearwater and High-A Jersey Shore, in which he compiled a stellar .332 average, .859 OPS, along with 71 runs scored, 22 doubles, eight triples, three home runs, 64 RBI and a whopping 47 stolen bases in 55 attempts in just 87 games played. He will likely begin the 2024 season in High-A or Double-A, depending on where the Phillies see him as the best fit.

The Phillies team as a whole struggled immensely with their defense this past season, in particular the outfield. In 2023, the Phillies ranked 26th in the league with -30 DRS, with their outfield totaling -20 DRS if it wasn’t for Johan Rojas raising the bar with his 15 DRS in just two and a half months of playing time.

However, that team weakness could soon be a thing of the past, with the potential of having the elite defensive combination of Rojas and Crawford manning their outfield in the near future. With the possibility of Crawford becoming a key contributor in all aspects of the game, the Phillies would be wise to hold on to him no matter the circumstances, as he could turn out even better than his parental predecessor.

Andrew Painter, SP, No.1 prospect

The former first-round pick right out of high school by the Phillies from the 2021 MLB Draft, right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter is perhaps one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Armed with a blistering 70-grade fastball and a 60-grade slider, along with tremendous command and control with his pitches, Painter blazed through three minor league levels during the 2022 season. He posted a combined ERA of 1.56, WHIP of 0.887 and 155 strikeouts in just 103 2/3 innings pitched. It was truly an amazing feat as he did it all at just the young age of 19, making him the top-ranked prospect in the organization according to MLB Pipeline in the process.

More impressively, it was believed that Painter actually had an inside shot of making the Phillies’ 2023 Opening Day roster until he was befallen by an elbow UCL injury that resulted in season-ending Tommy John surgery in the end. As a result, Painter likely won’t be back in action until the 2025 season.

Despite the Phillies being currently in win-now mode, they shouldn't even think about including Painter in any trade talks, given his enormous talent and potential. He represents the Phillies’ best homegrown pitching talent since Nola and will no doubt be a force on their pitching staff for many years to come.

In addition, his value could be hindered by his current injury status, so it makes no sense for the Phillies to move him when they might not end up getting anything of quality back. As a result, the key for the Phillies now is to be patient with Painter so that they can reap the benefits once he's back to full health.

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