Realistically, how far can the Phillies go in this year's MLB playoffs?
The Phillies will have to beat some tough postseason competition to make another magical run to the World Series.
The air is a little crisper, the leaves are starting to change colors, game 162 is in the books. This all means one thing: the MLB postseason is upon us. For the 90-win Philadelphia Phillies, the sky is the limit for their playoff aspirations.
If you recall, they barely managed to scrape into the playoffs a year ago as the third-best team in the NL East. While it looked like tough sledding as the third Wild Card, they managed to take out the Central Division champion Cardinals (who are nowhere to be seen this postseason) before going on their surprising and well-deserved run to the World Series.
So, what are realistic expectations for the 2023 edition of the Phillies? Is it World Series or bust for this squad, or will fans be happy just getting to the Division Series?
The Phillies face a treacherous path to the NLCS
The bracket is set for an all-NL East affair for the first two rounds.
To kick things off, the 84-77 Miami Marlins are heading to Citizens Bank Ballpark for the best-of-three Wild Card Series. The Phillies will be the favorite heading into this matchup despite finishing with a 6-7 record against their division foes this season.
The Marlins' pesky offense may have too much bark and not enough bite to get the job done. They finished with the fourth-highest batting average (.259) and the most single-base hits (979) in the majors but scored the fifth-fewest runs (668).
While it's not a lock, the Phillies will be expected to prevail in the Wild Card round and set up a rematch of last year's NL Division Series with the Atlanta Braves.
The 104-win juggernaut Braves looked unstoppable for much of the season and won eight of 13 contests between the two teams. At least the Phillies can hang their hat on the 2-1 series win and the battle they gave Atlanta in the teams' final series of the year.
The best-of-five NLDS may simply come down to who can hit the most home runs.
The Braves, led by MVP shoo-in Ronald Acuña Jr., hit a record-tying 307 home runs this season. While the Phillies launched 220, their second-half power surge makes this matchup more even than it looks. Both teams hit 107 long balls over the final two months of the season.
Based on their regular season success, Atlanta will be massive favorites against every challenger this postseason. So, realistically, if you're looking for a place where it would make sense for the Phillies' season to end, the NLDS would be a logical endpoint.
But it's October baseball, and no matter how unbalanced the matchups look, anything can happen ... and usually does.
So, what if the Phillies prevail?
NEXT: Can the Phillies make it to the World Series?
Can the Phillies make it to the World Series?
If the Phillies make it past Atlanta, they'll likely face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. That is unless the NL West champions get upset by the Milwaukee Brewers or Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Phillies went 2-4 against the Dodgers this season. While Trea Turner and his new teammates will be the underdogs in the eyes of many observers, if they've made it to the NLCS, they'll have that special Philadelphia postseason mojo on their side, like during last year's magical run.
Los Angeles, with their veteran stars and complementary youngsters, yet again finished with one of the top offenses in baseball. They had the second-best team wOBA (.341) and third-highest wRC+ (116).
However, there's reason to believe the Phillies can keep up at the plate. They weren't far behind the Dodgers with a .329 wOBA and 105 wRC+. If you look at the last two months of the season, the teams finished with an identical 121 wRC+, the fourth-highest mark in the majors.
They're also evenly matched on the mound. Philadelphia's pitching staff heads into the playoffs with a 4.02 ERA and a .304 wOBA against, while the Dodgers staff holds a 4.06 ERA and identical .304 wOBA.
This series could go either way, and with a win, the Phillies would find themselves in the Fall Classic for a second straight year.
At this point, it's hard to predict who the Phillies would face in the World Series, let alone if they could beat them. However, if there's one thing we've learned about this ball club over the past couple of seasons, their resiliency and toughness are unwavering no matter how challenging the path gets.
If they can get past the Braves in the second round, there's a real chance the Philadelphia Phillies could be celebrating a World Series victory.