Phillies' updated playoff odds show them leading the charge in NL playoff race

Injuries have burdened the Phillies recently, but their resilience has kept them on the right track for a division title.
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh / Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
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The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to close out another successful month. They are now 54-28 and again have the best record in baseball coming out of June.

Heading into Saturday's action, the Phillies are 14-10 in June. Their record feels worse than it is due to the multiple losses to their roster throughout the month. Trea Turner returned to action on June 17 after missing the previous six weeks due to a hamstring strain, while Brandon Marsh went down with a similar ailment and returned a couple of weeks later. J.T. Realmuto also went under the knife with a meniscus issue that has him shelved until after the All-Star break.

The latest saga is Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper leaving Thursday's game injured in the 7-4 loss to the Miami Marlins. Schwarber left the game before the ninth inning with a left groin strain, while Harper limped off after running out a ground ball to first base at the end of the game. Both were placed on the 10-day IL but will luckily miss limited time due to the lack of severity of the injuries.

Updated playoff odds: Phillies continue to lead charge in NL playoffs

The season is at its halfway point, which gives good context to where every team lines up. Let's take a look at the new playoff odds from FanGraphs.

The playoff odds last month had the Phillies chipping away at the Atlanta Braves' odds of winning the division. The Phillies now have an 81.4 percent chance of winning the NL East.

The Phillies offense has dipped, and rightfully so, with big pieces missing. Their pitching staff has once again bailed out the team and been frontline news with their MLB-leading June ERA of 3.04. Cristopher Sánchez capped a complete-game shutout on Friday, the Phillies' third such feat this season. The rest of MLB only has six.

Can the Phillies pitching staff keep them winning through the summer months?

No. 1-4 Phillies starting pitchers have been dealing at a historic level. There also seems to be no sign of slowing down. When the offense has lacked, the staff pulls through, constantly giving the bullpen rest through the week.

Here are the top NL teams' projected playoff odds and odds to win the World Series:

Team

Make Playoffs

Win World Series

Phillies

99.8%

13.9%

Dodgers

99.3%

17.1%

Braves

92.7%

9.4%

Brewers

88.7%

3.7%

Do the current odds reflect where the Phillies stand now and moving forward?

The script has been flipped on their odds for both a playoff berth and title aspirations. Their odds of making the playoffs increased by 1.4 percentage points since last month, and their odds of winning the World Series increased by 3.6 points. Their new projected win total increased to 97 (+2 wins from last month).

There is still time for the outcome of the season to change, even with the first half in the rearview mirror. The injuries are terrible, yes — no question about it. The difference now is that along with the drama of losing multiple stars, they have an 8.0-game lead in the division with a team that isn't afraid to call the next man up.

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