Phillies' updated playoff odds make a big swing after an electric May

The Phillies have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat, catapulting themselves into elite status.
Philadelphia Phillies have improved their playoff odds with an electric May
Philadelphia Phillies have improved their playoff odds with an electric May / Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The Phillies are looking to close the door on another successful month. It was a May in which the ball club went 19-7 and grew its overall record to 39-18 — both MLB bests with one game to go.

As of Friday morning, the Philadelphia Phillies sit in first place in the NL East, 6.5 games above the Atlanta Braves at 31-23. Through 50 games, they went a whopping 36-14, marking the best start the franchise has ever had in its 142-year history.

Phillies' updated playoff odds make big swing after an electric May

Now, we're a little more than a third of the way through the season, so let's take a look at the progress the Phillies have made in their FanGraphs playoff odds.

We looked at the playoff odds a month ago, and since then the Phillies have done quite the unthinkable. The pitching staff has a 2.65 ERA in May, which is first in the NL, while the bats have a .752 OPS, good for third in MLB.

Is this Phillies train going to be too much for the rest of baseball?

The Phillies' schedule has been a talking point as the lack of contenders has put somewhat of a damper on their dominance. Interestingly enough, not that many teams have separated themselves in the NL, with only six teams over the .500 mark.

Atlanta is one of those teams but recently lost yet another superstar, Ronald Acuña Jr., with a torn ACL in his left knee. The Braves have since fallen flat on their face more times than not.

Here are the top NL teams' projected playoff odds and odds to win the World Series:

Team

Make Playoffs

Win World Series

Dodgers

99.3%

20.0%

Phillies

98.4%

10.3%

Braves

94.1%

10.8%

Brewers

77.1%

3.3%

Phillies have a hold on the division, but is it too early to get excited?

After going scorched earth in May, the Phils are finally favored to win the NL East with a projected win total of 95 wins. The Phillies have increased their odds of winning the division to 64.6 percent, up from 25.4 percent on May 1. They have also increased their chances of making the playoffs from 86.5 percent to 98.4 percent, while their odds of winning the World Series are now 10.3 percent (+4.2 percentage points).

With the sample size only growing, these early wins have been vital to their division lead and give them a buffer for a bad stretch, like the recent road trip.

Trea Turner has been missing from the lineup since May 3 with his hamstring injury. Losing a difference-maker like Turner is detrimental, but getting contributions from players like Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens has built a more complete and sound team.

The Phillies may not sustain the .700 winning percentage, but they have players stepping up and providing help in any way they can to this World Series-hopeful team.

manual