Phillies' playoff odds take a drastic turn one month into the season

Only a fraction of the 2024 season is in the books, but how do the odds look after an inspiring April?
Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott
Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott / Sarah Stier/GettyImages
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Only weeks into the season have been completed up to this point, and it's by no means the ultimate precursor to how the standings will shake out in early October. We've heard it time and time again: the MLB season is a marathon. We just have to enjoy it until the champaigne hopefully pops yet again this October.

As of May 2, the Philadelphia Phillies sit second in the NL East at 21-11. At this point in the season, it's good to reflect on what's happened so far, one-fifth of the way into this marathon. But let's get a little ahead of ourselves and check in on the Phillies' current playoff odds from FanGraphs.

We covered FanGraphs' preseason playoff odds back in mid-February. These odds are updated constantly based on a number of factors, and they project outcomes such as playoff berths, clinching of Wild Cards or playoff round byes, and ultimately winning the World Series.

How are the Phillies' playoff odds looking one month into the season?

Before the season got underway, FanGraphs projected the Phillies for an 85-77 record — a smack in the face for a team that has improved record-wise the last three years in a row. As of today, that has improved to a 90-72 mark, which is their record from last year. A more respectable number after the Phillies again demonstrated their willingness to spend on talent.

Before Opening Day, FanGraphs had the Fightins' odds to win the division at 6.9 percent, 55.5 percent to make the playoffs, and a disappointing 2.8 percent to win it all. Now, after winning 13 of their last 16, they sit at 16.4 percent to win the division, 86.7 percent to make the playoffs, and 6.7 percent to win the World Series. Still, unfortunately, this isn't enough to top the reigning division kings, the Atlanta Braves.

Here are top NL teams projected to make the playoffs:

Team

Clinch Wild Card

Make Playoffs

Win World Series

Braves

16.9%

99.1%

21.1%

Dodgers

11.3%

96.0%

16.2%

Phillies

70.3%

86.7%

6.7%

Cubs

24.2%

63.0%

2.7%

Brewers

24.5%

60.1%

2.2%

Can the Phillies finally topple the rival Braves for the NL East crown?

It won't be an easy task due to the consistent talent the Braves keep retooling their roster with. Even after the loss of All-Star Freddie Freeman to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022, they brought in Matt Olson, who went on to hit 54 home runs in 2023. Yet, the Phillies still stay motivated to scale that mountain.

Some bad luck has gone the Braves' way. They lost NL Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider due to a partially torn UCL in his throwing arm, which put him on the shelf until sometime in 2025. They also lost second baseman Ozzie Albies for roughly two weeks with a broken right big toe, but he returned to action this week.

The Phillies have gained some respect back in the division race, with a 9.5-point increase and leap of 31.7 points to make the playoffs overall. It's still a small sample size, but it shows the difference a good start to the season can make for a club that has struggled with early-season success in recent years.

Are the updated World Series odds enough to get excited about?

An increase of 3.9 points for bringing home the commissioner's trophy isn't earth-shattering by any means. It does, however, show progress and how volatile the nature of the odds can be with every win or loss.

Overall, the Phillies currently sit fourth in FanGraphs' odds of winning the World Series at 6.7 percent, with the Braves (21.1), Dodgers (16.2) and Yankees (10.0) all ahead of them. However, one expert believes the Phillies have enough to win it all.

If the month of April has shown us anything, it's that this Phillies team can ride the starting rotation and count on all the position players at various times, like the absolute heater by third baseman Alec Bohm.

There will be letdowns, sure. But you can't help but wonder if the Phillies can continue at a decent pace for the entirety of the year, will this finally be the season they take the division crown from the Braves?

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