Phillies starting rotation power rankings going into the 2024 season
Ranking Phillies starting pitchers for the upcoming season. Who takes the top spot?
Today we continue our Philadelphia Phillies 2024 power rankings by looking at the starting rotation.
As the Phillies enter spring training in less than two weeks, not much has changed with the starting rotation as we grow nearer to pitchers and catchers reporting to Clearwater, Florida. The only significant deal the Phillies have made all offseason was re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal to stay in Philadelphia. Could an extension for Zack Wheeler be next?
Anchored by the one-two punch of co-aces Wheeler and Nola, the top of the Phillies rotation is one of the best in the National League. Three through five, the Phillies are solid yet unremarkable on paper, but Cristopher Sánchez, Taijuan Walker, and Ranger Suárez were mostly reliable options in 2023. Barring injuries or acquisitions, these are the five players who will toe the rubber for the Phillies every fifth day this season.
Let's take a look at the power rankings for the Phillies starting rotation heading into this season.
No. 5: Cristopher Sánchez
Last season saw some injuries to the rotation to begin the 2023 campaign. With Ranger Suárez placed on the IL to start the season, the Phillies turned to Matt Strahm and Cristopher Sánchez to start games in the early going. When Suárez returned in May, Strahm was placed back in the bullpen and Sánchez took over the fifth spot in the rotation. With no significant injuries and free agent signings entering spring training, the spot appears to be Sánchez's to lose.
Sánchez had a solid, if unremarkable, 2023 as part of the Phillies rotation. In 19 games (18 starts), he had a record of 3-5 with a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings while striking out 96 (8.70 K/9). The 27-year-old will never light up radar guns with velocity, and his 92.1 mph sinker was mostly unreliable last season as hitters feasted on the pitch with a .298 batting average.
By comparison, his changeup held opposing hitters to a .145 average and produced 55 strikeouts. There's room for improvement for Sánchez if he wants to take the next step as a major league starting pitcher.
Sánchez will likely begin the season in the rotation unless one of the Phillies prospects, like Mick Abel or Griff McGarry, force their way onto the roster with a breakout spring training. It's also worth noting that the free agent market for starting pitchers is still active. If the team signs another starter, Sánchez is likely the odd man out of the rotation, and that's why he's No. 5 in the Phillies starting rotation Power Rankings.
No. 4: Taijuan Walker
The signing of Taijuan Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract last offseason was overshadowed by the Phillies signing of Trea Turner. But adding Walker and stealing a rotation piece away from the rival New York Mets was generally applauded upon announcement of the deal. With Walker, the Phillies gained a legit No. 3 starter to follow Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the rotation.
Walker's 2023 numbers are solid on paper but misleading when taken as a whole. In 31 starts, Walker had a record of 15-6 with an ERA of 4.38 to go along with 138 strikeouts in 172 2/3 innings pitched. His 7.19 K/9 continued a steady decline since 2019, when he posted a K/9 of 9.00. This is a trend Phillies fans should keep an eye on with Walker this season.
Walker relied on a six-pitch mix in 2023, with his split-finger (33 percent), sinker (23 percent), cutter (17 percent), and four-seamer (17 percent) being the four pitches he relied on most last season. His split-finger was the most effective of his four primary pitches, with opposing hitters only mustering a .205 batting average against the pitch. His other three offerings, sinker (.271), cutter (.284), and four-seamer (.260) were all very hittable last season.
He had better success with two of his lesser-used pitches, a curveball he only used 5.7 percent of the time (.212), and a sweeper he featured 2.8 percent of the time (.158). Could 2024 be the year Walker changes up his pitch mix?
Phillies fans are expecting Walker to make the necessary adjustments to regain control of the third spot in the rotation in year two of his four-year contract. Walker felt insulted not to be trusted to make an appearance in the postseason for the Phillies, even as the bullpen fell apart during the NLCS versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Perhaps Walker uses this slight as a chip on his shoulder entering 2024 and outperforms expectations, but for now, he's No. 4 on our Phillies starting pitcher power rankings.
No. 3: Ranger Suárez
Ranger Suárez has become a bit of a cult hero to Phillies fans with his unflappable demeanor in big game situations and relative calm when fielding his position. The 28-year-old lefty has earned manager Rob Thomson's trust as a rotation piece. Based on last year's playoff snub of Taijuan Walker when the team needed innings, it appears that Suárez enters 2024 with the edge on the Phillies' No. 3 starter job.
Health was a concern right out of the gate for Suárez last season. He was placed on the IL with left forearm tightness he developed while training with his native Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic. After making his season debut with the Phillies in May, it took Suárez some time to get into a rhythm, but the left-hander found his groove until a right hamstring strain on Aug. 19 landed him on the 15-day IL until September.
Suárez's numbers in 2023 were mediocre at best. In 22 starts, he had a record of 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA to go along with 119 strikeouts (8.57 K/9) in 125 innings. Suárez's sinker, cutter, and four-seamer were all torched by opposing hitters in 2023, and only his curveball (.148 BA) seemed to keep batters off balance throughout the season.
With the Phillies seemingly intent to enter this new season with the same rotation as 2023 (minus Michael Lorenzen), Suárez will be expected to put together a more consistent campaign in 2024. While it's easy to point out injuries as a reason for Suárez's regression as a starting pitcher last year, it's clear he needs to come into 2024 with a better handle on three of his four primary pitches.
Past performance has gained Suárez the trust of Thomson and pitching coach Caleb Cottham, but he'll need to pitch well right from the start in order to maintain his standing in the Phillies rotation. That's why Suárez is No. 3 in our Phillies starting pitcher power rankings.
No. 2: Aaron Nola
Re-signing Aaron Nola stands as the Phillies' biggest move this offseason. With a healthy market for Nola's services evident at the outset of free agency, the Phillies saw enough competition to offer the 30-year-old a seven-year, $172 million contract to remain with the Phillies for what will likely be the rest of his career. Will the familiar locale and hometown discount lead to a World Series for the new Mr. Phillie?
Contract years are a tricky proposition for major league ball players. On one hand, you have to go out and block out the distractions and perform with the prospects of free agency looming on the horizon. On the other hand, depending on where a player is in their major league career, the difference between success and failure dictates the type of market that awaits at season's end and how lucrative contract offers will be.
For Nola, it's safe to say these questions were a contributing factor in 2023.
He had a subpar season in 2023. Pitching to a record of 12-9 in 32 starts, the right-hander was able to improve upon his sub-.500 win-loss totals of 11-13 from 2022. Nola recorded a 4.46 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 2023 in 193 2/3 innings, while giving up a career high 32 home runs to opposing hitters.
Hitters had a healthy .286 batting average with batted balls in play, and at times Nola was very hittable. In fact, Nola is only 49-43 since his 17-6 2018 season when he was named to his lone All-Star team.
When the Phillies re-signed Nola earlier this offseason, the team paid him to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. That's not a knock on Nola, but a reality check on the kind of pitcher he is on a contending team.
Sure, the Atlanta Braves or Boston Red Sox could have topped the $172 million the Phillies ultimately gave Nola, but the player and the team have the type of relationship where this deal got done very quickly. Is Nola good enough to serve as a No. 2 starter in a tough division? That question is open to debate.
Entering this season, Phillies fans are hoping that Nola, one year removed from an up-and-down year will regain the consistency that once made him an All-Star. With no more lingering doubts about where he will pitch for the foreseeable future, could this peace of mind result in the best season for Nola since 2018?
That's the hope going forward. A fun storyline to follow in 2024 will be Nola recording his 100th win in a Phillies uniform. Currently sitting with a career record of 90 wins and 79 losses, Nola is only ten wins away from this milestone, and comes into the season as No. 2 on our Phillies starting pitcher power rankings.
No. 1: Zack Wheeler
One of Dave Dombrowski's best moves since becoming president of baseball operations is signing Zack Wheeler. The hard-throwing right-hander had an up-and-down career as a member of the New York Mets. Tommy John surgery robbed him of nearly two seasons in 2015 and 2016, and general inconsistency followed when he returned to the Mets rotation on a regular basis in 2017.
Don't let the numbers fool you. Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. A yearly victim of poor run support, Wheeler has a record of 43-25 for the Phillies since joining the club in 2020. The one-time All-Star (2021) finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting this past season. Could Wheeler finally get the recognition he deserves in 2024?
In 2023, Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts and 212 strikeouts in 192 innings. The numbers may not scream Cy Young winner, but Wheeler was a victim of chronic poor run support last season. His 96 mph four-seamer (.199 BA) and 84.4 mph sweeper (.198 BA) were dominant offerings in 2023. It's not out of the realm of possibility to think that better run support and improved outfield defense will benefit Wheeler in 2024.
Wheeler enters the 2024 season as the ace of the Phillies rotation. With rumors of a spring training contract extension persistent throughout the offseason, Phillies fans are hopeful that all of this media noise turns into a reality when the team reconvenes in Clearwater in just under two weeks.
Have we seen the best of Wheeler? All signs point to a career year in 2024, and that's why Zack Wheeler is No. 1 on our Phillies starting pitching power rankings.
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