Phillies plan to continue to use six-man rotation to keep arms fresh for postseason run

The Philadelphia Phillies are testing the old adage that there's no such thing as too much pitching. 

Heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Phillies are slotted first in the National League wild-card race, 2.5 games up on the Miami Marlins, who are currently occupying the third and final spot. As they try to create more separation from the San Francisco Giants, Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, their focus is dialed in on making it to the postseason healthy and as rested as possible. 

Enter the Phillies' six-man rotation. 

Nola, Wheeler and Suárez remain at the top of the rotation

Heading into the year, it seemed clear that the Phillies would have a solid top-four rotation. The fifth spot was more of a question mark. 

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler remain workhorses. Heading into Tuesday’s matchup, Wheeler has tossed 137.0 innings with a 3.74 ERA. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, Wheeler has logged 503.1 innings, seventh-most in all of MLB. During that stretch, he has led the majors in wins above replacement (WAR) with 15.6, according to FanGraphs. 

Oh, and No. 3 on that innings list? Nola with 534.0. And he checks in with a 13.2 WAR during that same stretch. 

In 2023, the 30-year-old Nola sits at 148.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA. He has already given up 26 home runs, one away from his career high of 27 in 2019. During his last three starts, the right-hander hasn’t made it more than 5.1 innings, putting up a 6.60 ERA in 15.0 total innings, but he still sits seventh in total innings for the year across the majors. 

While the extra rest, in theory, is a good thing, one pitcher who might not be too fond of it is the 33-year-old Wheeler, who spoke with Matt Gelb of The Athletic about the adjustment: "You're just not as synced just because it's more time than what you're used to. You've been doing it for so long that — even if you change it with your mindset — your body is just used to it. So I think you’d rather pitch on four days' rest at 80 percent and have that feel, rather than 90 percent with an extra day or two. That's just me, personally. So, I don't know."

Wheeler might be onto something too, as Gelb relayed Wheeler’s ERA when pitching on four days’ rest (1.60), five days (4.42) and six days (6.48). 

Caleb Cotham, the Phillies pitching coach, alluded to this being a temporary solution when talking with Gelb: "Right now. I’ll take the rest a little bit for the guys — with the belief that at some point we're going to hit the gas pedal with our best."

Ranger Suárez got a late start to the season after injuring his elbow before the World Baseball Classic. When he returned, there was an adjustment period in May while he got his feet under himself. Since June 4, though, Suárez has a 3.16 ERA in 79.2 innings, striking out 72 batters while walking 28. He has made it through six innings in four of his past six starts. 

Since June 4, the 27-year-old left-hander has thrown the sixth-most innings (79.2) in MLB, according to FanGraphs, and has the eighth-best left on base percentage (82.2 percent) among qualified pitchers.  

There have been shaky outings from this crew, but Nola, Wheeler and Suárez are the anchors and likely aren’t going anywhere in the rotation. 

Walker’s velocity a factor

Not to be outdone innings-wise, Taijuan Walker has put in 131.2 innings thus far in 2023. Since June 6, he has made it through at least five innings in 12 straight starts. In five starts from June 6 through June 29, he had a .84 ERA across 32.0 innings. In his seven starts since that stretch, he has a 4.25 ERA in 42.1 innings. 

There's been one very noticeable hiccup in his pitching lately, though. In multiple starts this year, his velocity has been down. 

In his last start, an 8-1 loss to the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, he lost control of his command as well, walking a season-high six batters and hitting another. He also gave up two home runs, marking the first time he gave up multiple homers in a game since a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 1. 

After his start Saturday, Paul Casella of MLB.com relayed what manager Rob Thomson said: "Control is off, command is off, velocity is down. So I think it's time to just give him a little breather."

Walker, for one, appreciates the extra breather, saying, "I know we have a couple off-days coming up, so hopefully I'll get a couple extra days of rest and the velocity picks back up."

According to Casella, his average of 91.2 mph during Saturday’s game was the lowest of his career for the four-seamer.  

His fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph (91.3) compared to last year (92.8), according to Baseball Savant, and 2.9 overall compared to 2021 (94.2).  

Walker and the Phillies coaching staff are hoping the extra rest can help correct his velocity issues and set him up for success down the stretch.