Phillies-Mets 2024 NLDS: Breaking down the matchup between the NL East rivals

With the No. 6 seed New York Mets' thrilling comeback against the Milwaukee Brewers to take the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday night, the NLDS matchup for the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Phillies has finally been determined. With division rival Mets being a worthy opponent on many fronts, how will the Phillies stack up against them? Let’s take a little closer look at the numbers.

Phillies-Mets 2024 NLDS: Breaking down the matchup between the NL East rivals

One clear difference that stands out between the two teams is their respective home and road records. The Phillies have been a beast at Citizens Bank Park, holding the best home record in the entire league this season (54-27). However, they have surprisingly struggled to just a near .500 mark on the road (41-40).

Whereas the Mets sported similar records whether at home (46-35) or on the road (43-38), which could be both a good and a bad thing. The Phillies need to take full advantage of their home-field advantage that they fought for all season and got for the NLDS.

Statistics are from the 2024 MLB regular season with league rankings shown in parentheses.

Phillies have a slight edge on offense

As dominant as the Phillies have been all season, the offensive and pitching stats certainly show that the two teams are actually closer than most initially thought. Philadelphia may be slightly ahead in terms of run production, but the Mets have some booming bat power to make up for it.

An area that could prove to be a difference maker for the Phillies will be their speed. Not only are they fast, but their ability to steal bases more frequently to set up scoring chances could give them the upper hand, with the Mets ranked further back in the pack. With Mets’ catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud successfully catching only 19 percent of base stealers this season, it's time for the Phillies to run wild.

Despite the lack of big names on the Mets pitching staff, their numbers stack up quite well against the Phillies. In particular, New York has been one of the best at minimizing hits given up, as shown by their second-ranked .230 opponent's batting average. Philadelphia must be able to capitalize on their chances when given the chance.

However, one thing that the Phillies can look to is the fact that three of their losses to the Mets this season came in games started by Taijuan Walker, who may not even be on the NLDS roster. Taking that out of the equation, the Phillies could have actually done a lot better against their NL East rivals.

Players to watch

After seeing Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso come through for the Mets in the Wild Card Series, they have shown they can be big-game players at any moment. With a rotation headed by veterans Luis Severino, José Quintana and Sean Manaea, along with the surprise return of Kodai Senga and the sudden emergence of David Peterson, they could be a huge threat to the Phillies’ chances of getting back to the NLCS for the third consecutive season.

Fortunately, the Phillies have their own stars who can also come up huge on the biggest stage, as witnessed by Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos' performances last postseason. Along with a rotation led by duo aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, together with the breakout season by Cristopher Sánchez, they can no doubt match the Mets arm for arm and bat for bat.

Phillies-Mets 2024 NLDS prediction

The Mets have had a long and tough schedule heading into the NLDS, needing to play the excruciating doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves this past Monday and then going the distance in the three-game NL Wild Card Series against the Brewers.

They have done well so far, but it should be about time that they run out of gas against the Phillies, who are fresh and ready to go. With their hunger to get back to the World Series, the Phillies will dispatch their pesky division rivals 3-1 in the NLDS.