Who is the Phillies’ first-half Cy Young?

A big part of the Philadelphia Phillies' success in 2024 has come from the strength of their starting rotation. Led by Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies starters rank first in the league with 45 wins, a 3.22 ERA, three shutouts and a .222 opponents batting average. They're also a close second with 555 2/3 innings pitched, 532 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP. 

The new “Four Aces” have been putting together their own career years. As a result, each and every one of them has displayed Cy Young-worthy performances to date. So, if we were to decide on the Phillies’ first-half Cy Young Award winner, who should receive the distinguished honor?

There are four candidates for the Phillies’ first-half Cy Young

Ranger Suárez's career year marred by recent stumbles

Early on, without much argument, Ranger Suárez would have been the clear frontrunner. After all, he became the first MLB pitcher since Juan Marichal to start an MLB season 9-0 with an ERA below 1.50, joining also Hall of Famer Walter Johnson and Cy Falkenberg as the only pitchers in history to ever accomplish the feat.

However, things have unraveled recently for Suárez. In his last three starts, he gave up 15 earned runs on 22 hits in just 15 2/3 innings pitched for a dismal 8.62 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. It has put quite a dent into what has been a breakout for Suárez and has cast some doubt on whether or not he can now keep up his dominance for the rest of the season.

Aaron Nola's bounce-back season still has some flaws

Aaron Nola has had a huge bounce-back season this year following a less-than-stellar 2023. Nola once again appears to be the Nola of old by compiling a tidy 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 116 strikeouts in 19 starts. He currently leads the team in wins with 11 and innings pitched with 119 2/3 innings.

He still hasn’t gotten away from his issues with the long ball, having given up 17 already on the season. In addition, a worrying stat remains afloat as we have seen his strikeout rate fall for the fourth consecutive season. With a BABIP of .252, perhaps Nola had been a little more than lucky this season to produce the solid numbers that he has thus far.

Cristopher Sánchez's surprise breakout puts him in the running

Then there’s the surprise breakout performance of Cristopher Sánchez. For someone who had been projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter, he has certainly elevated his game this season to front-end material. In 18 starts, Sánchez has a 7-4 record with a stellar 2.96 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, giving up just two home runs while registering 87 strikeouts in 103 1/3 innings pitched. In doing so, he earned his first All-Star nod.

However, Sánchez's WHIP, wins and strikeout totals all rank the lowest among the quartet. Moreover, most of his wins came from a recent hot streak where he tallied four wins in his last five starts. So whether he can actually maintain that consistency will be a key aspect to monitor, with the Phillies having gone only 10-8 in his starts games, despite his brilliant performances.

Zack Wheeler is doing Zack Wheeler things, but even better

Finally, we have perhaps the most consistent and dominant pitcher on the staff, Zack Wheeler. The 34-year-old has been arguably the Phillies' most reliable pitcher since he joined the team in 2020.

This year hasn’t been any different, as he has put up a 10-4 record, 2.70 ERA, 151 ERA+ and 0.99 WHIP with 126 strikeouts in just 116 2/3 innings. His ERA, WHIP and strikeouts lead the Phillies’ rotation, all of which are the major traditional categories considered for Cy Young candidates. On top of that, his 2.70 ERA leads all qualified National League starters.

More impressively, Wheeler has produced quality starts in 14 of his 19 outings and has given up more than two earned runs in a game just four times. If it wasn’t for a lack of run support earlier on in the year, he could have easily been 13-1 instead of 10-4.

Looking at his advanced metrics on Baseball Savant, you can see a sea of red as he ranks in the upper echelon in the league in most of the major categories. With the ability to effectively offer six different pitch selections to baffle opposing hitters, no wonder he has had such great success this season, not to mention throughout his career. 

Even the major sportsbooks all currently have Wheeler with the best current odds of winning the actual 2024 NL Cy Young Award. Taking everything into consideration, Zack Wheeler is without question the Phillies’ 2024 first-half Cy Young Award winner.