Phillies' ace makes push for NL Cy Young with dominant August

Since signing with the Philadelphia Phillies as a free-agent in the 2019 offseason, Zack Wheeler has been arguably the best starting pitcher in all of baseball.

At the time of the signing, the five-year, $118 million contract was looked at as a wild overpay by industry experts. His tenure with the Phillies has been nothing short of dominant and even led to another massive contract in March for three years and $126 million.

The $42 million AAV will make him the second-highest paid starter in baseball, behind Shohei Ohtani’s $70 million AAV (deferred payments don’t count when calculating AAV, it’s simply the money over the years). That contract will theoretically take him to the stage of his career where he can either opt to retire or sign one-year deals until he retires (a la Clayton Kershaw). 

Wheeler, who was chosen by the San Francisco Giants sixth overall in the 2009 MLB Draft, has lived up to the hype of a top prospect. He’s been an All-Star, received MVP votes, and even won a Gold Glove. When will he capture that elusive Cy Young?

After placing 12th in the voting following the 2020 season, Wheeler put himself at least on the map to be considered in future seasons. In 2021, Wheeler finished second to Corbin Burnes, despite an equal split of the first-place votes. He and Burnes each received 12 first-place nods, while Max Scherzer collected the other six. It should be noted that Wheeler pitched 213 1/3 innings and compiled a 7.5 WAR, 46 1/3 innings more than Burnes, and his WAR was 2.2 higher than the Brewers’ ace. 

In simple terms, he should’ve won it that year. 

Wheeler finished sixth in the voting last year, mainly thanks to a rocky first month of the season. 

Zack Wheeler makes push for NL Cy Young with dominant August

This year, it’s been widely considered that Chris Sale is leading the race for the NL Cy Young. Sale, in the midst of a career renaissance with the Atlanta Braves in his age-35 season, has had a great year.

He has the lowest ERA in the NL at 2.58. Wheeler slots in right behind him with a 2.63 ERA. Sale also leads the NL in wins with 15. After Wheeler’s gem against the Braves last night, he sits at 13. Wheeler has pitched more innings (167 2/3) than Sale (153 2/3), allowed fewer hits (119) than Sale (123), and only given up five more earned runs than Sale has the entire year. 

In last year’s race, Blake Snell’s 2.25 ERA and 187 ERA+ earned him the crown. The voters gave him 28 of 30 first-place votes despite leading the league in walks and throwing the third-least amount of innings out of the top-10 finishers. 

Snell finished May 2023 with a 1-6 record. He finished the year going 6-1 in August and September, catching enough helium to move him up voters’ boards. In those two months, he pitched 61 innings and allowed only 12 runs. Did voters fall for the recency bias?

Zack Wheeler's numbers were incredible in August

This August, Zack Wheeler was the best pitcher in the National League, ranking first or second in many categories. His last loss came on Aug. 20 in Atlanta, a game the Phillies dropped 3-1. Before that, he hadn’t lost a game since June 16 in Baltimore. 

Sale has been equally impressive and if the Braves make the playoffs, it will be because he dragged them there. That could play into his favor. The fact that as of Sept. 1, he hasn’t lost a game since the Chicago White Sox squeaked out one run against him back on June 27. 

To counter, if the Phillies win the division, it will be because Wheeler pitched better than Sale down the stretch. He pitched against better offenses than Sale did in August and will get a bit of a break in September with some not-so-good offenses. That should give him a chance to lower his ERA and collect more wins as the Phillies look to wrap up the top seed in the NL. 

Finally, one more thing that could work against him is the success of the Phillies’ starters as a whole. There is no doubt Wheeler is the best pitcher, but Aaron Nola has put together a great year, Ranger Suárez has been really good in 2024, and Christopher Sánchez evolved into an All-Star out of nowhere. Voters could think that Wheeler’s incredible season is thanks to the Phillies' offense when compared to the rest of the staff. It’s a flawed way of thinking, especially when he has been the Phillies’ best pitcher since Roy Halladay over a decade ago.