Phillies 2023 Report Cards: Grading the starting pitching

When looking back over the Phillies throughout the 2023 campaign, the offense obviously comes to the forefront. The Phillies' new "ball goes boom" mantra has taken the spotlight off of some impressive performances and overall seasons from the pitching staff. After an unexpected and disappointing finish, how did the rotation perform?

The Phillies starting rotation ended the season 15th in the league in overall ERA (4.30), which regressed from last year's 3.80 ERA. While the entire league ERA jumped nearly .4 of a run, it's still a representation of the shortcomings during the regular season.

However, they did a good job at limiting baserunners, posting a 1.22 WHIP, which was good for fifth in the league. The starters' postseason ERA was an incredible 2.19, which was first in the league and .75 of a run away from the next-best team. It was an unsustainable mark that came in a limited amount of games, but for our grades and in concept, nothing matters more than the postseason.

The rotation was excellent in the postseason, showing that they could live up to the moment (for the most part) when it mattered most. But when looking back over a full 162, where did the starters fall short? What improvements were made? What needs to be changed looking ahead to next season?

Six starters made a major impact starting games in 2023. Let's break down and grade each individual starter's season and recap their best and worst moments.

Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler was easily the Phillies' best starter in 2023. He covered 192 innings, tallied 212 strikeouts, and allowed only 77 earned runs. His strong showing throughout the regular season led to him finishing sixth in National League Cy Young voting, even receiving all the way up to third-place votes. If there were still any questions about who the Phillies' ace is, they are put to rest now.

Throughout the regular season, Wheeler was often the Phillies stopper. Every fifth day, when Rob Thomson handed the ball to the 33-year-old, you expected a win. In most cases, that was true. In the first half of the season, he started slow, pitching to an ERA just over 4.00 in 18 games, but showed his real prowess down the stretch and into the postseason.

In his 14 games during the second half of the season, Wheeler compiled 9.5 strikeouts a game and brought home a 3.08 ERA.

In the postseason, Wheeler had a 3-0 record, 1.95 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and team wins against Jesús Luzardo, Spencer Strider, and Zac Gallen (twice).

Wheeler carries himself with a different demeanor than most. Not a cockiness, but confidence in his stuff and ability to throw it. In the playoffs, he attacked the strike zone more than ever, going ahead 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 in counts and keeping the hitters guessing. When you have a 100 mph fastball, a sinker that drops off the table, and a sweeping slider that can range from low 80s to low 90s in velocity, it's tough for a hitter to guess right.

Grade: A

Aaron Nola

What can you say about Aaron Nola? He has been the guy for eight-plus years now in Philly. He is Philly. Fresh off his recently agreed-upon contract, we'll get to see him in red pinstripes for the foreseeable future.

His 2023 was a very interesting one, to say the least. Nola surrendered a career-high 32 home runs over the course of 32 starts — not good. Nola ended the season with a 1.151 WHIP — very good. Aaron Nola has stuff, durability, and poise; that's what makes him a great pitcher.

Obviously, Nola wasn't what everyone had expected, or even hoped for, this year. His sniper-like two-seamer that always used to find the edge leaked over the plate. His nasty 12-6 Curveball that he would bury in the dirt stayed up just a little too long. His velocity was down consistently late into games. Yet, he still ended the season with a 4.46 ERA, close to 200 innings, and 200-plus strikeouts again.

Everyone has hiccups or off periods. Thankfully it wasn't during the postseason.

Nola pitched to a 3-1 record with a 2.35 ERA with over 20 strikeouts in his four starts in the postseason. He was a huge piece of the carefully crafted puzzle Caleb Cotham and Rob Thomson created.

The postseason matters most. If he hadn't performed so well during the postseason his grade would be a C. Instead, he receives a B.

Grade: B

Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suárez is a weird player to decipher. He was injured going into the season from overwork during the WBC, so he missed some time. He also missed a couple of starts down the stretch with a hamstring injury as well. But, while he was on the field, he played well.

A consistent five-to-six-inning guy, Suárez pitched to contact and searched for the corners like he always does, leading to a 1.416 WHIP. This restricted him from going deeper into games and led to some silly or undeserved runs. All that being said, he ended with a 4.16 ERA and had some impressive starts along the way.

Suárez plays a Gold Glove infield with one of the calmest demeanors in the sport. This is why he is and was trusted in some of the biggest spots of the playoffs. In the eventual series-clinching Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, he threw five innings of one-run ball, allowing only three hits and walking none.

Suárez, coming into his final year of arbitration, needs to remind the Phillies front office of the heroics he can perform if he wants to earn the long-term deal he must be eyeing. He is a valuable lefty starter with bullpen flexibility and extensive playoff experience. While he's a very good pitcher, he looked just a bit off during most of the regular season.

Grade: B-

Taijuan Walker

With a 15-6 record, Taijuan Walker is why they don't decide the Cy Young based on record anymore.

Walker was Captain Rollercoaster in his first year with the Phils. Through his first 11 starts, he sat at over a 5.00 ERA. In June, he went 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA. In July, he had a 3-1 record with a 3.86 ERA. He was never the reason this team won games, but he was always a reason that they won (or sometimes lost) games.

Most of Walker's starts relied on his splitter. If his splitter was going, he was going. His splitter was swung at with a 24.5 percent whiff rate and an 18.2 percent putaway rate. He could use it when he was behind in counts to steal a strike, when he could keep it on the corner. It was when his splitter found more than a little bit of plate that he ran into issues. He could also use it to get swings and misses down in the zone. Again, when he kept it down, he was successful.

Over the course of 31 games, Walker collected 138 strikeouts, pitching to a WHIP of 1.309, right around the league average.

The other issue Walker had was his slow starts. He was notorious for giving up multiple runs in the first one or two innings and then settling in for the next three, or four. That's okay in the regular season when you're trying to eat chunks of innings and keep games close. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, it becomes a problem.

This is why Walker was only seen at the top step of the dugout throughout the postseason.

Grade: C-

Michael Lorenzen

The tragic fall of Michael Lorenzen. From no-hitter hero to giving up nothing but hits, his season was a weird one.

Lorenzen started the year with the Detroit Tigers and pitched well enough to earn himself an All-Star appearance (albeit as the Tigers' lone representative). When traded to the Phillies, there wasn't too much expectation. Traded for a low-level prospect and sliding in as the fifth or sixth starter, Lorenzen stepped on the mound and changed everyone's minds within two starts.

In his first two starts in Phillies pinstripes, he pitched 17 innings, allowing only two runs, six hits, and, of course, throwing a no-hitter. After the magic calmed down, Lorenzen would go on to allow 27 runs in his next six starts and was eventually pushed to the bullpen as a piggyback starter or low leverage reliever.

While Lorenzen pitched well in the first half and in starts here and there, the collapse was bound to happen. He gave up over a 40 percent hard-hit rate and an xSLG of .439. The advanced metrics told the story all along. Lorenzen did what he does, pitching to contact, getting hitters off balance, and attacking with his off-speed stuff. When he relies on his fastball, he gets into trouble, and that's what he did towards the end of the season.

Grade: C-

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