6 free agent pitchers the Phillies should chase if Aaron Nola leaves
Who can the Phillies pursue in free agency for their starting pitching needs if they don't end up re-signing Nola?
With their 2023 MLB season coming to an end, the Philadelphia Phillies now turn their attention to the upcoming free agency that is set to begin shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. Among the notable Phillies who will become free agents, the one at the top of the list is none other than team ace Aaron Nola.
Nola has been a key part of the Phillies’ starting rotation for his entire nine-year career in the majors. He has definitely been through all the ups and downs with the ballclub over that time span. But one thing that he always brought to the Phillies was his consistent focus and winning mentality every time he took the mound. In doing so, he was often the difference maker for the ballclub in important games.
Overall, he has posted a 90-71 record, including three complete game shutouts, along with a 3.72 ERA, 113 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP and a whopping 1,582 strikeouts in just 1,422 innings pitched over 235 starts.
The Phillies’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski clearly stated in his end-of-season media presser that the number one priority for the ballclub was to work on re-signing Nola. He noted that the key to winning the World Series was to have top-tier pitching, and he considers Nola as definitely just that. As a result, the Phillies intend to be aggressive in their approach to try their best to make it happen.
However, if a potential deal does end up falling through, Dombrowski mentioned that they would need to find a starting pitcher of similar quality to Nola as his replacement. If such a case does end up coming to fruition, what would be the starting pitcher options available in the upcoming free agency?
Here are six of the top free-agent options the Phillies can pursue if they fail to re-sign Nola.
Shohei Ohtani
Definitely the cream of the crop, Shohei Ohtani would be the jackpot prize for the Phillies, in addition to the numerous other teams that will be in pursuit of the two-way star this upcoming offseason. Not only would Ohtani be able to take over as the ballclub’s new ace, but he would also provide an added boost to the already-powerful Phillies’ lineup and make the offense nearly unstoppable.
In 2023 as a pitcher, Ohtani went a solid 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, giving up 46 earned runs, 55 walks and 167 strikeouts in 132 innings pitched. As a hitter, he posted his usual MVP-like numbers with a .304 batting average, and a 1.066 OPS, along with 102 runs scored, 44 home runs, 95 RBI and 20 stolen bases.
However, things could get a little more complicated with his recent elbow surgery. It's believed he'll be able to hit again by Opening Day in 2024, but potentially won’t be able to pitch until 2025.
If the Phillies can’t afford to wait an entire year for Ohtani’s pitching to fill the void left by Nola, it may be wise for them to turn to some of the other available options.
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito was actually one of the most highly coveted pitchers at the trade deadline this season, with the Los Angeles Angels being the lucky ones to obtain his services.
However, he struggled mightily in his short tenure with the ballclub by posting a horrific 1-5 record with a 6.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, giving up 24 earned runs, including 11 home runs in just 30 2/3 innings pitched. In doing so, the Angels ultimately fell out of playoff contention and Giolito wound up being put on waivers.
However, prior to being traded to the Angels, Giolito was actually having a fine season with the Chicago White Sox with an ERA constantly below four and a strikeout rate close to 10 batters per nine innings. He had maintained such numbers in three of the previous four seasons with the White Sox, so he has proven to be a reliable and consistent starting pitcher in the past. Therefore, the Phillies could potentially take a flyer on Giolito as one of their rotation options.
Clayton Kershaw
When it comes to Clayton Kershaw, you just know you'll definitely have one of the best pitchers in all of baseball if you can manage to pry him out of Los Angeles.
After all, the three-time Cy Young winner and 10-time All-Star has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league for the past decade and a half. Even last season, at the age of 35, Kershaw delivered with a 13-5 winning record, along with a 2.46 ERA, 177 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP, 40 walks and 137 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings of work.
However, the only worry for the Phillies would be how well Kershaw can maintain his health. That’s because he'll be turning 36 prior to Opening Day in 2024, and he has been sidelined frequently with ailments over the last four seasons that caused him to miss some time as a result. But if he can manage to avoid the IL, Kershaw would no doubt be the perfect front-of-the-rotation starter to replace Nola.
Sonny Gray
Other than two outlying years back in 2016 and 2018, Sonny Gray has pretty much been a dependable, solid, front-end-of-the-rotation starter throughout his career.
He possesses a lifetime 98-85 winning record with a tidy 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 1,521 strikeouts in 1,571 innings pitched in 279 games. In particular, he appears to have rediscovered his dominant form with the Minnesota Twins in the past two seasons in which he had gone 16-13 with a 2.90 ERA, 142 ERA+ and 1.14 WHIP with 300 strikeouts in 303 2/3 innings of work.
In addition to being named an All-Star for the third time in his career, his strong performance helped lead the Twins this year to their first postseason berth since 2020.
Gray will be 34 by the time 2024 rolls around, but he appears to be still going strong, utilizing a good complement of pitches to go along with his fastball. He might not be as intimidating and tantalizing as Nola with his strikeouts, but he certainly gets the job done. Gray would be a safe, value pick for the Phillies from the starting pitching free agency crop.
Blake Snell
Blake Snell, the former AL Cy Young winner in 2018, has certainly battled through some rather tough seasons. However, in the past year with the San Diego Padres, Snell has regained some of that Cy Young form once again as he went 14-9 with an impressive 2.25 ERA, a league-leading 182 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP and a whopping 234 strikeouts in just 180 innings pitched.
Despite the dominance, he did issue a career-high 99 free passes, so he did encounter some slight control issues along the way. Nevertheless, he'll be only 31 next year and should have plenty left in the tank to be a solid option for the Phillies. In particular, if he could continue to maintain his dominant form shown this past season, he could potentially even provide greater value than Nola in the long run.
Marcus Stroman
Finally, there’s the intriguing option of Marcus Stroman. In his case, he has an opt-out clause that he can utilize if he wishes to enter free agency for this upcoming offseason. If he does exercise it, then he'll definitely be a hot commodity in the coming weeks. After all, Stroman has been one of the more consistent and electrifying performers in the league in the past few seasons.
In 2023, Stroman, unfortunately, tailed off somewhat at the end of the season after starting the year strong but still ended up with a 10-9 record with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, along with 119 strikeouts in 136 2/3 innings of work.
Throughout his career, he has always been a front-end starter and looks to continue his success in that role for the foreseeable future. In addition, with his unique personality and attitude, he would definitely add some voice and character to the Phillies’ clubhouse, which could be a key to inspiring the ballclub to reach that next level and win it all.
There are other potential starting pitching options as well. But these six pitchers would provide the most significant impact for the Phillies if they were to add them to their starting rotation if a Nola deal cannot be reached.
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