Disappointing Phillies top prospect drops in MLB Pipeline Top 100 update

With the recent update of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects, the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans should be excited to see their fair share of prospects make significant jumps in the rankings. However, one top Phillies prospect finds himself one of the biggest droppers in the group.

That player is the starting pitcher Mick Abel. The 22-year-old right-hander has dropped a whopping 14 spots from his previous ranking of No. 49 to his new spot at No. 63. He also lost his second spot in the Phillies Top 30, sliding down to No. 3 behind Aidan Miller.

He put together a solid 2023 campaign in which he went 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 132 strikeouts in just 113 1/3 innings over 23 starts, primarily with the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils. Despite a high walk rate, at 5.20 BB/9, Abel was expected to continue his steady growth and development this year with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. There were even some high expectations that he could make his MLB debut sometime this season.

Disappointing Phillies top prospect drops in MLB Pipeline Top 100 update

However, Abel has gotten off to a rough start this year with the IronPigs. Not only has he been struggling with location, but he has seen his fastball lose a few ticks, down to the 93-94 mph range. As a result, in six starts to date, he has posted a less-than-stellar 5.40 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .270, easily the worst totals of his professional baseball career thus far.

His walk rate is still elevated, at 5.94 BB/9, while his strikeouts are down from his 11.57 K/9 last year to 8.64. His hit rate has increased drastically from last year, from 6.2 H/9 to 9.18 currently. His regression observed this season likely has played a huge part in his recent drop in rankings.

On the bright side, it's still early in the season. Perhaps Abel is just working out the kinks in his game and will make it more polished as the season progresses. As one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, alongside Andrew Painter, the Phillies certainly hope he has just run into a minor bump on the road in his development rather than a brick wall.

Nevertheless, his continued presence in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 clearly shows the great potential he still has in the eyes of many, including the Phillies.