Corbin Burnes trade has 5 major implications for the Phillies
The grand theft fireballer committed by the Orioles this week will have ripple effects throughout baseball. Here's what it means for the Phillies.
The Brewers and Orioles shook the baseball world this week with a piece of highway robbery that shipped one of the best pitchers on the planet, 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, to Baltimore in exchange for two prospects.
The prospects are good; infielder Joey Ortiz comes in at No. 63 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100, while lefty DL Hall is highly regarded and has MLB experience. But for a full year of a proven great like Burnes, it's next to nothing.
There are many possible implications for the Philadelphia Phillies, ranging from how the deal shapes the starting pitcher landscape for the rest of the offseason to what it tells us about the Phillies' future plans. Here's a look at five major implications from the deal for the Fightins'.
Are other major Brewers pieces on the market?
It remains unclear if Milwaukee is in the midst of a fire sale or a retooling, as the actions of the ownership and the front office are in contradiction with one another.
First, longtime manager and lifelong Brewers fan Craig Counsell left to lead their biggest rival in Chicago. There are whisperings that he wouldn't have done so unless he perceived a lack of commitment from ownership in Milwaukee toward building a winner.
Then, Milwaukee was absent from the free agent market and trade circuit all winter until last week, when they signed beloved Phillie Rhys Hoskins. Quietly, against the prevailing media chatter lending inertia to the Cubs and the Cardinals, it seemed as if the perennially underrated Brewers could again take home the NL Central title.
Then, the Burnes deal; a Cy Young winner in exchange for two non-blue chip prospects. Do the Brewers simply want to to recoup any value they can from their talent, knowing it's all leaving, anyway?
If that's the case, major players like shortstop Wiley Adames, closer Devin Williams, and even newly signed Rhys Hoskins (who has an opt-out after year one of his deal) could be on the market at the trade deadline. In the case of Adames and Williams, they could be on the market now.
Williams is particularly interesting, as after former Milwaukee reliever Josh Hader, who many Phillies fans had their eye on before he signed a record deal with Houston earlier this winter, Williams is perhaps the game's next most dominant reliever. He has a ridiculous 1.89 ERA in 214 big league innings the past five years, and the right-hander would form perhaps the game's best late-inning duo with lefty fireballer José Alvarado.
His cost is not certain. He certainly doesn't offer the value of Burnes, but he's available for two seasons, while Burnes is a free agent after this season. Still, it's hard to imagine the Brewers getting more for Williams than Burnes.
What about Dylan Cease?
While Phillies fans may be frustrated they didn't land Burnes for the appallingly small haul given up by the Orioles, there could be good news tied to the lopsided nature of that deal.
Chicago White Sox star Dylan Cease is the other ace-caliber starting pitcher on the market, and his asking price to this point has been seemingly prohibitive.
The New York Post's Jon Heyman has said the south siders are asking for "the sun and the moon," in talks, including up to four of a team's top 10 prospects.
https://t.co/J5Tgpjdtxq. A rival GM says the Sox seek “the sun and the moon” for Dylan Cease, but I say, considering the value of top pitchers, he’s worth at least the sun, maybe more. Plus notes on Kershaw, Woodruff, Noah, more
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 27, 2024
Cease is very good, but doesn't quite boast Burnes' track record. If Burnes can be landed for DL Hall and Joey Ortiz, teams now have added negotiating power in prying Cease away from the White Sox.
What could that look like for the Phillies? If it was on par with the Burnes deal, it would mean a hitter like Aiden Miller or Carlos De La Cruz, and a pitcher like Tommy McCollum. That's it. Even if the Sox asked for slightly more, the Phils should keep an open mind about dealing Griff McGarry or Símon Muzziotti, if it means landing Cease.
That said, no rumors have really connected the Phillies to Cease specifically, and the outcome of the Burnes deal could simply mean that someone with a firmly expressed pitching need like Atlanta, St. Louis, Cincinnati, or even the Dodgers will have less of a struggle in stealing Cease away.
Tightening market for Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell
Even if the Phillies choose not to be players for Cease, the Burnes deal means that a major team has been removed from the starting pitching sweepstakes.
It's not clear to what degree the Orioles may have been involved in talks with Montgomery or Snell, if at all, before they pulled the trigger on Burnes. But the market for Snell, Montgomery, and even someone like Cody Bellinger is reliant on the domino effect of other moves. No one really did anything (other than the Phillies re-signing Aaron Nola) until the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani. And everything was hung up again until the Dodgers finalized their Yoshinobu Yamamoto deal.
Burnes is the latest piece to fall into place. Not only is the market for Snell and Montgomery now smaller, but the price may be going down, too. If one of the best pitchers in the game like Burnes can be purchased for two prospects (only one of whom is in MLB Pipeline's Top 100), the trade market might continue to be a more palatable alternative than overpaying for aces with question marks. At least to the extent that their price tag comes down.
And if their price tag comes down, the Phillies have been rumored to be ready to pounce.
Possible takeaways from the Phillies bowing out on Burnes
Doubtlessly, Phillies fans are left scratching their heads. Surely they could have afforded Burnes at this price tag?
What are the #Phillies doing? The Orioles just got Corbin Burnes without having to give up Holliday, Cowser or Kjerstad 🤣 Joey Ortiz (6th Ranked Prospect) and DL Hall is all it took? Dombrowski couldn’t have topped that? Make it make sense. @JackFritzWIP https://t.co/PHdCD3D63Q
— Mike Tomasco (@MikeTomasco) February 2, 2024
That said, the Brewers have had a lot of success in developing players internally, with Burnes being the most notable recent example. Their experts could see something in Hall and Ortiz that isn't being appreciated by popular media or public prospect evaluators.
Their ask of the Phillies, had they had one, might not have been as simple as "two prospects similarly ranked to public valuations of the Orioles system." There's a slim chance their ask of a National League rival could've been marginally higher, too, though it's doubtful it would've been so much as to move the needle to a prohibitive cost.
It's also possible the Phillies think very highly themselves of their internal talent. Perhaps Milwaukee would have identified pieces they are not willing to part with, regardless of external rankings.
Finally, there's the matter of the Phillies' current rotation. The supposed weakest link, Cristopher Sánchez, is considered a fantasy sleepout on the verge of a potential breakout campaign. Perhaps the Phillies weren't comfortable bumping him or Taijuan Walker to a swingman role, but that's a lot to swallow.
Wheeler's hypothetical trade value
Phillies fans don't want to consider this bleakest of possible 2024 futures, but if something terrible happens, as it does to great teams every year, the Phillies could consider trading Zack Wheeler at the Trade Deadline.
Wheeler is in the final season of his contract. The Phillies have expressed serious interest in extending him, and some rumors have it as the top item on their to-do list for the remainder of the winter.
If they do manage an extension, this would be a moot point, and if they have an even halfway decent season, it would be a moot point. But if, like Nola a year ago, the situation is unresolved by the end of spring training, Wheeler could be destined for at least a brief tour through free agency.
If anything, in the unlikely case that the Phillies struggle to the point that they would consider selling, the low price for Burnes might eliminate all possibility that they would deal Wheeler. It would likely only be something they would consider if they received an offer that blows them away, because they would still want Wheeler to re-sign in Philly next spring.
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