4 alternative free agent targets for the Phillies with Sonny Gray off the market

Stoves are getting hotter this offseason as we near Winter Meetings, and arguably no team has had more going on than the St. Louis Cardinals, who signed three starting pitchers in Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and now Sonny Gray in rapid succession in the few days before and after Thanksgiving. Gray was easily the most in-demand of the three, with connections to the Braves, Reds, and Phillies prior to the signing of his three year, $75 million contract with the Cardinals.

As far as rotations go, the Phillies are still in a relatively good spot following their re-signing of Aaron Nola, giving them Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez. Still, Philadelphia is flush with cash and even more so with ambition and potential, and no one should expect them to rest on their laurels after taking the league by surprise and winning Nola back. They’re still rumored to be connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and it’s unlikely that their explorations and negotiations will stop with him.

Four free agent targets for the Phillies with Sonny Gray off the market

This year’s free agent market is pitcher-heavy, which is why most of the notable signings so far this offseason have been of starters like Gray, Nola, and Kenta Maeda to the Tigers. Basically, there’s no shortage of options for the Phillies to turn to, especially those who they might be looking at as middle rotation innings-eaters. Here are four that they could chase after losing Gray to the Cardinals.

Shōta Imanaga

Shōta Imanaga, Japan’s second best pitching offering posted to MLB this offseason, has been overshadowed in free agent conversations by his younger countryman and Samurai Japan teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who would be the hottest commodity on the market if it weren’t for Shohei Ohtani. While Yamamoto’s numbers do simply stand out more than Imanaga’s, part of the imbalance in the conversation could have to do with their difference in age; Yamamoto is 25 and Imanaga is 30, and Imanaga has dealt with major surgeries in the recent past, one of which was season-ending in 2020.

Still, Imanaga beat Yamamoto to become NPB’s strikeout king in 2023, 174 to 169, for a strikeout rate of almost 30%. He also had a walk rate of only 4% and has been able to give the Yokohama BayStars over 150 innings every year for the last three years despite his injuries. Imanaga, like the 34 year old Sonny Gray, could be a No. 3 starter for the Phillies, one who could come with a much smaller price tag than Yamamoto while still being able to provide experience and high quality starts.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Imanaga will earn $85 million over five years, which would also make him less expensive than Gray. But we've already established that money seems to be no object to the Phillies — if it was, it’s likely they would’ve let Aaron Nola go to clear up some of their payroll — who have forked over millions of extra dollars for exceeding luxury tax limits over the past few years. The competition for Imanaga looks less fierce than most other A- or B-tier starting pitchers in free agency, he's younger than Sonny Gray, and he could come cheaper, so the Phillies should keep a close eye on his market.

Marcus Stroman

Ever since he opted out of his contract with the Cubs at the beginning of the month, chatter surrounding Marcus Stroman has dwindled significantly. Turning down the remaining $21 million left on his contract in Chicago was somewhat of a risky move, given that he went down with a hip injury in August and only pitched 136 innings by the end of the year. It's possible that he's working quietly behind the scenes to see if he can get more from anyone else, and the teams with the biggest pockets would be the best places to turn. Although it probably wouldn't be for long, as Stroman will be 33 for most of the 2024 season, he could be a good signing for the ever-rich Phillies as a short-stint No. 3 or 4 starter.

Stroman got off to a great start in Chicago this year, posting a sub-3.00 ERA until late July, only a few starts before he was placed on the IL with hip inflammation that spiraled into a rib issue. He came back for four more appearances in September to rough results (he pitched to an 8.63 ERA), but he still ended the year with a better K/9 and HR/9 rate than 2022, as well as his second career All-Star appearance in July.

It's likely that Stroman can expect a two or three year contract for around $20 million a year, which would put him between Gray and Shōta Imanaga in terms of affordability. Taking into account his All-Star April through June this year and being forgiving of his last appearances in September, Stroman can clearly still be a formidable starter. With a career rather comparable in numbers to Gray's, he could be a fine replacement for the Phillies.

Seth Lugo

According to FanSided's MLB Insider Robert Murray, Seth Lugo is "drawing interest from more than half the league" following his departure from the Padres. He was most recently connected to the Tigers, who presumably let talks die down after they signed Kenta Maeda, leaving Lugo open for exploration with other teams. Lugo ranks just below Stroman on both the Athletic and MLB Trade Rumor's lists of top 40 and 50 free agents, and it's easy to see why — they're close in age, have eight and nine years in MLB respectively, and have pitched to similar career ERAs (Lugo with 3.50 and Stroman with 3.65).

But Lugo diverges from both Stroman and Sonny Gray in a rather essential way: he only found new life as a big league starter this year, having served as a bullpen arm for the other seven years of his career with the Mets. The Padres were onto something; in 2023, Lugo pitched 146 1/3 innings, the most in his career, to a respectable 3.57 ERA. He also produced similar-to-better numbers to Stroman, with a 8.61 K/9, and career bests 2.21 BB/9 and 2.8 fWAR, despite missing a month with a calf strain.

Lugo could come cheaper than Gray, Stroman, and Shōta Imanaga, while also having more life in him as a starter, even though he just turned 34. He stood to make $7.5 million more with the Padres had he stayed in San Diego, but he took a gamble on himself by opting into free agency instead. He stands to make a projected $10 million a year on his next contract, so it feels safe to say that it was a good bet. If the Phillies are looking for a bargain option to round out their rotation, Lugo could be their man.