3 things the Phillies must do to win Game 3 of the NLDS vs. Braves
With a crucial Game 3 looming, here are three things the Phillies need to do to give themselves a 2-1 series lead over the Braves.
We all know the narrative by now.
The Atlanta Braves were down and out for a game and a half, while the Phillies looked to be cruising to a 2-0 NLDS advantage. But after a massive comeback win in Game 2 in Atlanta, the Braves have life and momentum coming into the raucous Citizens Bank Park for Game 3.
The Phillies are all professionals and won't fold after just one defeat. As bad as the result of Game 2 feels, it's just one loss. They know they're still in a good position by grabbing a split on the road.
This isn't new territory for The Fightins.
They found themselves in the exact same position at this time last year. After splitting the first two games of the 2022 NLDS in Atlanta, they came back to Philly, to home cooking, comfortable beds and a wild Philadelphia crowd.
The story wrote itself as the Phillies proceeded to clobber the Braves 9-1 and 8-3 and advance to the NLCS.
What must the Phillies do today to secure a crucial, if not must-win, Game 3 and recapture that NLDS magic from a year ago?
Jump on Bryce Elder early
While the Braves took their time announcing their Game 3 starter, it doesn't change the fact that the Phillies have the advantage on the mound. With 24-year-old Bryce Elder taking the ball for Atlanta, the Phillies' bats need to create offense and get on the board early.
Elder just completed his first full season in the big leagues and will make his postseason debut tonight. While he had some impressive outings this year, including a seven-inning, six-strikeout shutout against the Phils in June, the youngster was also prone to wildness and inconsistency all season.
Despite a respectable 3.81 ERA, Elder carried a 4.55 xERA, a 4.34 SIERA and a 4.42 FIP, suggesting he had better results than he should have.
Elder's 3.25 BB/9 was the 11th-highest mark among qualified starters. In his second-to-last start of the year, he walked five Phillies in 3 2/3 innings, giving up four runs on a pair of homers while striking out zero.
The Phillies need to stay patient and make Elder come into the zone. One of the keys to their successful second half was patience at the plate — they upped their walk rate to 10.0 percent over the final month of the season and combined that with the third most home runs in the majors over that time, with 48.
If they can get runners on base, the Phillies have more than enough offense to bring them home.
Keep wearing out the basepaths
The Phillies have racked up an impressive number of stolen bases this postseason. Through four games, they have the most attempts (10) and with nine successfully swiped bags, lead the second-place Diamondbacks by three.
Trea Turner leads the way with four steals, while Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Cristian Pache and Bryson Stott have each chipped in one each.
The running game was a big part of their victory in Game 1 of this series. They took four free bases off of Atlanta pitching and catcher Sean Murphy and, in the process, set a franchise record for stolen bases in a single playoff game.
After swiping another pair of bags in Monday's loss against veteran catcher Travis d'Arnaud, there's no reason to think they won't continue running. Even though Murphy is in the 86th percentile in pop time and 84th percentile in caught stealing above average, the Braves have elected to go back to the 34-year-old d'Arnaud for Game 3.
d'Arnaud ranks in the 45th percentile in pop time and the 6th percentile in caught stealing above average. Not good ... for the Braves at least.
The Phillies have done their homework and know which pitchers can be taken advantage of, and with d'Arnaud behind the plate, there should be plenty of opportunities for Phillies runners on the basepaths tonight.
Get the Citizens Bank Park crowd into the game early
The Phillies have two fantastic opportunities in front of them. Just like last year's NLDS, they can avoid the trip back to Truist Park altogether with a pair of wins at home.
There’s no doubt that Citizens Bank Park will be rocking before first pitch. Philly fans are known for their passion and exuberance, making their home field one of the premier postseason venues.
It can be a daunting place for opposing players, especially for young pitchers making their postseason debut — like Bryce Elder will be tonight. The key for the home team will be to keep the crowd in it right from the start.
On the other side, Aaron Nola loves pitching in front of the Philly faithful. In 14 regular season starts at Citizens Bank Park this year, he pitched to a 6-3 record with a 3.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings. Compare that to his 5.43 road ERA, and it's obvious he gets up for the home fans.
Nola will need to build on his sparkling seven-inning, three-hit shutout in the Wild Card round with a clean first inning to get the crowd riled up and the Phillies’ bats in the game as soon as possible.