3 Phillies starting pitcher trade options if Aaron Nola leaves, and 1 starter to avoid
How would the potentially available starters on the market fit in Philadelphia? Who should the Phillies stay away from?
The free agent market opens for business on Monday. With that comes all the hopeful and fretful hand-wringing amidst the uncertainty of whether the Philadelphia Phillies will be able to re-sign their homegrown ace pitcher Aaron Nola.
The Phillies have a legitimate desire to re-sign the 30-year-old Nola, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski declared following the team's NLCS elimination, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
"He’s our priority to sign. I can't tell you that I feel 100 percent confident we’re going to get it done," Dombrowski said at his end-of-year media availability. "But we would like to sign him, and we’ll be aggressive trying to make that happen."
That sounds great, but considering how far apart the two sides were in talks last offseason, Phillies fans shouldn't hold their breath.
"We need to be in position where we have somebody else that will be a starting pitcher of quality," Dombrowski said. "So, yes, it’s either Aaron or somebody else."
As baseball fans, we want to believe that our heroes love our teams as much as we do and are willing to take a hometown discount. In reality, as much as Nola says he wants to be in red pinstripes, if the money isn't close enough, he'll be plying his trade elsewhere come Opening Day next season.
So, if Nola leaves, where will that leave the Phillies? They'll undoubtedly chase some of the free-agent starters on the market. They may even pursue Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But they could also explore the trade route. There are several quality names on the trading block, according to Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY.
Per Nightengale: "The top pitchers expected to be available on this trade market this season, according to GMs, are Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers, Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays and Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians."
Let's see how each of these pitchers will fit in Philadelphia. Plus, we'll throw one more name at you, who the Phillies shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.
Corbin Burnes, MLW
Corbin Burnes, the Milwaukee Brewers ace, has been unofficially on the trade block in many eyes since the Brewers botched his arbitration process last season. If you recall, Burnes was not a happy camper after the arbiter sided with the team, all so they could save a whopping $740,000.
Now, with a big bump in arbitration salary in 2024, projected to hit $15.1 million by MLB Trade Rumors, followed by free agency pending in 2024, the fiscally frugal Brewers might be looking to unload the star starter.
Would the Phillies take Burnes in their rotation? Certainly. Any team would.
The 29-year-old right-hander has put together an impressive resume in his six major league seasons with the Brewers. He has a 33-21 record, a 2.94 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP in his three full seasons since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Over that span, he has a 30.3 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate for a 23.5 percent K-BB rate — the league average K-BB rate this season among qualified starters was 14.2 percent.
He has been an All-Star in all three seasons, won the NL Cy Young in 2021, and finished seventh in Cy Young voting last year.
Will the Phillies want to pay the price for one year of a top-of-the-line starter like Burnes? Maybe, maybe not. They'll be in the same position at the end of 2024 as they are with Aaron Nola right now, with Burnes commanding a hefty free-agent contract after next season.
However, the case for bringing Burnes to Philadelphia is buoyed by where this team is in its competitive cycle. The window to win a World Series isn't going to last forever. The core is on the cusp of suddenly being too old in a year or two. Made up of 30-plus veterans like Zack Wheeler (33), Bryce Harper (31), Trea Turner (30), J.T. Realmuto (32), Kyle Schwarber (30), and Nick Castellanos (31), the time to push the chips in is now.
Pairing Burnes with Zack Wheeler would give the Phillies a monstrous 1-2 punch. Having two studs at the top of your rotation can go a long way, as we saw this past postseason.
Tyler Glasnow, TBR
Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow, like Burnes, has one year of control left and is in line for a substantial pay raise next season, up to $25 million. He'll hit free agency after the 2024 season.
The 6-foot-8 righty has always had tantalizing stuff, but his career has been marred by injuries.
He recorded a career-high 120 innings pitched in 2023. Before that, his high mark was 111 2/3 innings in 2018. He has dealt with forearm and elbow problems, having Tommy John surgery in 2021. He has also had oblique and back issues since then.
Despite the health concerns, in 21 starts this season, Glasnow pitched to a 3.53 ERA — although his FIP (2.91) and xFIP (2.75) were much lower — and registered 162 (!) strikeouts in his 120 innings.
His 12.15 K/9, 33.4 percent strikeout rate, 25.8 percent K-BB rate, and 3.08 SIERA all rank second in the majors behind Atlanta's Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched in 2023. And that previously mentioned 2.75 xFIP? It was the best in the majors among the same group of starters, with 120 innings.
Combine his strikeout ability and his 51.2 percent ground ball rate, and you have a pitcher seemingly perfectly designed to pitch at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
While Glasnow will be made available by the Rays, Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld might opt to stay away from the 30-year-old. Although his injury history could deter many teams from throwing their hat in the Glasnow sweepstakes, it may also suppress his trade cost and make it a worthwhile gamble for one season.
Shane Bieber, CLE
Another starter with one year of control left, Shane Bieber looks like a player who will be on the move. At least that's what Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report thinks, naming the 28-year-old the Cleveland Guardians' most-likely-to-be-traded player.
The righty has been in the league since 2018, won the AL Cy Young in 2020, and finished fourth and seventh in voting on two other occasions. The two-time All-Star most likely would have been traded midseason, but a trip to the IL with elbow inflammation forced the Guardians to hang on to their homegrown talent.
While this isn't the same Bieber who won the Cy Young in 2020, he's still effective. In that award-winning season, he struck out 122 hitters in 77 1/3 innings for a ridiculous 14.20 K/9 with a 94.1 mph four-seam fastball. In 2023, that velocity dropped to 91.3 mph, but he still managed a 3.80 ERA through 128 innings.
One wonders how much his elbow problem affected his results this season. He had the same velocity in 2022 but pitched to a 2.88 ERA with 198 strikeouts in 200 innings. He obviously knows how to pitch with that 91 mph fastball.
If the Phillies are looking for a shrewd, under-the-radar type deal that won't break the bank, Bieber might be the way to go. MLB Trade Rumors projects Bieber's arbitration raise at $12.2 million.
Dylan Cease, CHW
Dylan Cease is an interesting case. He was a Cy Young finalist in 2022, finishing second in voting. In 2023, the Chicago White Sox had no idea what would happen from start to start in 2023 when Cease took the mound.
His 2.20 ERA in 2022 ballooned to 4.58 this past season. The 27-year-old still got his strikeouts, with 214 in 177 innings, and only surrendered one more walk (79) than in 2022 (78), but he gave up 90 earned runs. He gave up 45 in 2022.
Cease was a lot like Aaron Nola this season. While there were some phenomenal outings, there were also some absolutely horrific starts in which it looked like he was throwing batting practice to the opposing team.
There's always the possibility that Cease threw in the towel in 2023, based on the rumblings about the toxic culture and dysfunction within the White Sox organization. For a club that can't seem to get out of its own way, things went from bad to worse this year.
Cease has two more years of arbitration-eligible team control left before he becomes a free agent after the 2025 season. If the Phillies were to make this trade, it would cost them more in assets for the extra year of service and two potential playoff runs, but the right-hander would be an affordable rotation piece. MLB Trade Rumors projects Cease to earn $8.8 million in 2024.
With the uncertainty around what his 2024 performance will look like, Dombrowski, Fuld, and company should stay away from Cease. This Phillies team is in a win-now mode and needs a top-of-the-rotation starter they can depend on.
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