The Philadelphia Phillies took another series from the division rival Atlanta Braves over the weekend, improving to 16-12 within the National League East. They then finished out the month of June on a strong note on Monday and ended the month with a 14-13 record after starting 1-6. The Phillies did go through a rough stretch, but maintained their position in the National League. It was a typical June swoon, but good things should still be up ahead if this lull proves temporary.
The Phillies now currently sit at 50-35, coming off winning two-of-three in Atlanta and continuing to build separation in the NL East. It may not be a three-team race like initially assumed, but the rest of the league will find ways to get in the Phillies' way in the second half of the season.
Phillies' odds of bringing home NL East title jump despite treading water in June
Despite the Phillies' middling record over the past month, the starting pitching was a bright spot. The starting rotation's MLB-leading 2.35 ERA in June is a perfect example of how great the staff has been all year. On the other hand, the bullpen continues to be a thorn in the team's side as they continue to raise questions with a 4.21 June ERA that ranked 21st in baseball.
There has been a constant battle for the division since the season kicked off and remains the theme of June between the Phillies and Mets. Although, the Phillies' odds of winning the NL East have jumped from 45.7 percent at the beginning of June to 64.9 percent as we roll into July.
Let's take a look at how the ever-changing division odds are shaping up, according to FanGraphs' Playoff Odds:
Team | Make Playoffs | Win Division | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Phillies | 92.9% | 64.9% | 10.1% |
Mets | 78.1% | 31.4% | 5.6% |
Braves | 25.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
Marlins | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The two horse race has been the identity of the 2025 season as the Braves, after starting out 0-7, just haven't bounced back to their winning ways. The Mets have remained the only team to put up any sort of fight, although they have severely scuffled as of late, as they were swept by the Pirates on the weekend, getting outscored 30-4 in the process. Their pitching staff has come crashing back to reality as they've posted a MLB-worst 6.41 ERA as a club dating back to June 13.
The Phillies have also had their own streakiness, per MLB.com's Paul Casella. While getting swept in Houston, they went on a 26-inning scoreless streak and ended the series with only one run scored. Before that series, the Phillies' odds to make the playoffs were up to 90.5 percent and odds to win the World Series were up to 9.1 percent.
The Phillies now have upcoming battles with other top NL contenders before the All-Star break. They have two series against the San Diego Padres and three against the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants, all with winning records and hungry to stay in the Wild Card race. The Phillies hopefully have shaken off the terrible baseball they played through this month and have an opportunity to build on their division lead in July.