The Philadelphia Phillies are in a tailspin. They're 8-15, shielded from last place in the NL East thanks only to the incompetence of the New York Mets.
However, their -45 run differential is the worst mark in the entire league through April 22, and manager Rob Thomson sounds entirely disinterested in applying actual coaching philosophies to turn this sinking ship around.
So, is this whole picture really as messy as it all seems? The answer to that question might be just as complicated as the mess itself:
Team hitting and pitching underlying data through the first ~15% of the 2026 MLB season.
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) April 20, 2026
-Yankees, Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers are good
-Reds, Athletics, White Sox, and Royals are struggling
-Phillies, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals are ... chaos? pic.twitter.com/vLbVYKDhmH
By wRC+, the Phillies' offense ranked 25th in the league at 87 entering play on Tuesday, ahead only of teams such as the Mets and Colorado Rockies. That's not exactly the company of baseball luminaries.
However, by SIERA, their pitching staff is the best in all of baseball at 3.24. SIERA, or skill-interactive earned run average, is a complicated stat with a rocket-science formula (you can see it for yourself here), but all it really measures is what a pitcher's ERA should be without accouting for defense. The primary difference between it and FIP (fielding independent pitching) is that SIERA accounts for contact quality and type.
Is this the coat hanger the Phillies can hang their hat on, or are just searching for fool's gold in a lost season?
Phillies run the danger of wasting baseball's best pitching staff in 2026
There's two sides you can take here: the optimist or the pessismist.
If you want to view the Phillies' glass as being half full, you'll really hone in on that pitching success. SIERA is one of the best metrics we have to predict future success on the mound, since it effectively isolates the talent of individual arms from the scope of the team.
And talent is one thing Philadelphia has in spades. Cristopher Sanchez (1.59 ERA) has blossomed into the ace of this staff, while each of Aaron Nola (5.06 ERA, 3.63 SIERA), Andrew Painter (4.42, 3.22), and Jesus Luzardo (7.94, 2.45) have been much, much better than their actual results thus far. Plus, Zack Wheeler hasn't even pitched yet in the regular season, and his return should only make this rotation even better.
If you are more inclined to see this glass as half empty (or entirely empty), then you'd be right to point out that pitchers don't exist in a vacuum. The Phillies' horrific defense isn't going anywhere, and the pitching staff will only continue to suffer while the group of gloves behind them ranks last in the league in defensive runs saved.
The offense was supposed to be the great equalizer here, but just about everyone not named Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber has been faltering on that front. If the rest of the lineup starts hitting -- or, if by some miracle, the defense starts playing better -- then the Phillies can get back on track before things derail further.
If not, though, they may go down as one of the best case studies of wasting an elite pitching staff.
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