Absurd Phillies pitching stats show things should turn around (but we're scared)

The Philadelphia Phillies' pitching staff was just crushed to the tune of 28 runs in three games by the Chicago Cubs, and a date with the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves is hardly what the doctor ordered for an ailing group of arms (Game 1 didn't go so well for the rotation's weakest link).

That being said, if it feels like this group deserves better, that's because they do. The Phillies rank in or near the top 10 in most notable pitching statistics, yet they're nearly bringing up the rear when it comes to actually limiting runs.

What's happening? Is this just a case of extremely bad luck (wouldn't be the first time in Phillies history), or is there some underlying cause for the severe struggles?

3 root causes for Phillies' absurd pitching discrepancies

Heading into their weekend series with the Braves, the Phillies' pitching staff has certainly run up some impressive numbers. Let's rattle a few off and talk about what they mean.

In the bad category, they rank 26th in team ERA (4.92), tied for 23rd in home runs allowed (15), and dead last in opponent batting average (.272).

As for the positive side of the ledger, the team ranks third in xERA (3.37), tied for first in FIP (3.07), second in strikeout rate (26.2%), second in walk rate (6.7%), first in groundball rate (49.9%), and third in pitching fWAR (3.5).

Yes, a team with the 26th-worst ERA is also the one with the third-most valuable pitching in the league. Huh?

There's three primary explanations for what's happening here. The first is the most obvious: bad luck. A gap of 1.55 between actual ERA and expected ERA is absurdly large (it leads the league by a mile). When the samples are so small like they are in mid-April, it's simply just a fact of life that some balls will be hit into spaces where defenders aren't there. It stinks, but it does mean that the team should experience some hard regression to the mean with time.

The second explanation is a little more concrete: bad apples ruining the whole bunch. Everyone knows that Taijuan Walker is practically unwatchable these days, but Jesús Luzardo's 7.94 ERA was last among the rotation prior to Walker's series-opening mess against the Braves. He has been arguably the biggest victim of bad luck in baseball, as his xERA (3.62) suggests much, much better days should be ahead.

Plus, with Zack Wheeler nearing a return to the fold, the team should be able to replace Walker in short order and, hopefully, field one of the league's best starting fives.

The final issue plaguing the team is more concerning... and less fixable. The Phillies are the worst defense in the sport with a wide margin, ranking dead last with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 26th with -6 Outs Above Average. This has been an issue for years, but it's also the reason why the team ranks first in FIP, which is a stat that measure what a pitcher's ERA should be when erasing the defense from the equation.

Unless Dave Dombrowski goes all-out at the trade deadline and brings in a new group of gloves, it's hard to see that last issue being fixed this year. If that's the case, the team will need to bank on much better luck (and a return to form from Wheeler) in order to turn this ship around.

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