The Philadelphia Phillies may have just dropped a heartbreaker of a series to the Houston Astros, but fans shouldn’t feel too down in the dumps. With just 15 games left to play, the Phils have whittled their magic number all the way down to 12 in order to clinch a playoff spot.
For decades calculating magic numbers has been an exciting activity for baseball fans. The concept is simple: how many times would a given team need to win, or have the teams chasing them lose, in order to clinch a playoff spot? As each MLB season winds down, prognosticators everywhere obsess over magic numbers.
After Thursday’s gut-wrenching series finale loss to the Houston Astros, the Phils’ magic number remains at 12. As such, a dozen straight wins would do the trick. 12 straight losses from their Wild Card opponents would do the same. Realistically, the Phillies just need to take home a handful more victories over the next week or two while their adversaries inevitably lose a few games, and they’ll be all set to pop champagne in the clubhouse.
Just imagine telling a Phillies fan back in late April that they could capture a playoff berth with more than a week left in the season. Anyone who watched the club’s wretched 9-19 start (which led to beloved manager Rob Thomson falling on his sword) would have a hard time believing that the Phils could sneak into the third Wild Card spot on the last day of the season.
The Phillies have remarkably gotten their magic number down to 12 after a brutal start to the year
Now look at them. The Fightins’ sit at 82-65 on the year, still within striking distance of the Atlanta Braves for the division crown; a club that they'll conveniently start a three-game set against on Friday. Even if they aren’t able to overcome a 4.0-game deficit in the East, they’re almost certain to make the postseason as a Wild Card entrant.
The National League’s Wild Card picture had been a mess for most of the season, but has cleared up in recent weeks. Plucky teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals dropped off the pace, leaving the Phillies, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks to fight it out for three spots.
The Phils currently occupy the top Wild Card position, 1.0 game clear of the Cubs, who in turn are 2.5 up on the Friars. If the season ended today, the Cubs would come to Citizens Bank Park for a best-of-three round played entirely in Philadelphia.
That last part may be the most crucial element for the Phillies. Earning themselves a first-round bye is probably a pipedream at this point, so now they need to focus on setting themselves up for success in the Wild Card series. The Bank may have lost some of its luster as “four hours of Hell” after multiple consecutive October disappointments, but it certainly still gives them a massive advantage.
Fortunately for both the team and their fans, the Phillies have played well enough since their dreadful start that September doesn’t have to be a rollercoaster. As long as they're able to avoid a spectacular collapse (1964 anyone?) they can now use the last leg of the season to align things they want to for the postseason, and focus on capturing a long-awaited World Series trophy.
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