This past weekend’s dud of a series against the division-rival Atlanta Braves may have all but dashed the Philadelphia Phillies’ hopes of winning the division, but they have moved incrementally closer to securing a playoff berth for themselves. Sunday’s win, combined with losses from other contending teams, lowered the Phils’ magic number for a postseason spot down to just nine games on Monday, with 12 left to play.
Magic numbers give baseball fans a tangible way to quantify their favorite team’s path to the postseason by combining the necessary amount of wins and opponents’ losses needed for that club to mathematically ensure that they’ll play meaningful baseball in October. The Phillies entered the series in Atlanta with a magic number of 12 and worked that figure down to nine games by the end of the three-game set.
Monday serves as a much-needed off day for an exhausted Phillies squad before they head to the nation’s capital to take on the Nationals for three games. After that, the Phils will fly up to New York for a three-game slate against the Mets, giving them six straight contests against teams that have no hope of taking part in playoff baseball. That should be welcome news for Phillies fans, as the club will lock horns with the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, who pace the National League and American League respectively, for the final two matchups of the season.
The Phils will need to make some hay against their lowly division rivals this week if they want to avoid fighting for their playoff lives towards the end of the regular season. Ideally, they’ll be able to sew up their postseason spot with time to spare, allowing them to line up their rotation the way they’d like for a Wild Card series and give their regulars a breather.
The Phillies need to continue shrinking their magic number in order to put themselves in a good spot to start the playoffs
That last part could end up being the most crucial of all, as dynamite southpaw Jesús Luzardo was scratched from Saturday’s scheduled start due to left shoulder stiffness. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in the sport in the season’s second half, and was in the conversation to start Game 1 of his club's playoff run.
If the Phillies are able to clinch their Wild Card spot over the next few days, it would grant them the freedom to slowplay Luzardo’s return to the mound, giving him as much rest as he can get before the playoffs begin. Conversely, any dilly-dallying in Washington and New York could force the team into relying on their emergent ace to seal the deal down the stretch.
Such a situation would present a worst-case scenario for a few reasons. First, that would mean that the Phillies would keep losing while their Wild Card competition keeps winning, prolonging or perhaps even endangering their ability to make the postseason. Moreover, even if the Phils do scratch and claw their way into the dance, rushing one of their most important pitchers back from an injury scare that has claimed the baseball lives of Cy Young Award winners could put his long-term future, and that of the Phillies, by extension, in jeopardy.
Ultimately, there’s just one thing for the Phillies to do: win baseball games. Most of these issues become moot points if they simply finish off their opponents in the standings with a solid week. That wouldn’t make Luzardo’s shoulder trouble magically disappear, but it would afford him as much time as possible to rest up and get ready for a playoff run; a run in which the Phillies are really going to need him.
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