The Philadelphia Phillies are already all but eliminated from the divisional race before the end of April. That’s what a ten-game losing streak and league-worst run differential will do. They’re not out of the playoff race entirely due to the fact that 12 teams make the postseason each year, but a few more weeks of play this poor will seal their fate. If that does happen, fans will want to see the team sell off pieces at the trade deadline to bring in young talent. Unfortunately, the Phillies just don’t have much to sell.
Phillies fans don’t have to look far for an example of a franchise that tore things down at the trade deadline. Just last summer the Phils made trades with the Minnesota Twins for Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader. The Twins reeled in former first-rounder Mick Abel and top catching prospect Eduardo Tait from Philadelphia, while bringing in loads of other talent in a flurry of deals.
The frustration and resentment towards an over-the-hill core that has failed to win it all will lead many Phillies fans to wish for the same kind of deadline sell-off, but unfortunately it just isn’t in the cards. Unlike the Twins of last year, the Phillies have barely any desirable assets should they become sellers, making their future look even bleaker.
Terrible roster construction kills any hope for a Phillies trade deadline frenzy
The problem with the Phillies’ roster is that too much money is tied up in aging veterans who are turning in diminishing performances. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have remained elite and they won’t be going anywhere. Trea Turner has had just about as many awful stretches as he’s had fantastic ones, and no team is going to touch the eight years and over $200 million still owed to him. Ditto for Aaron Nola, who is only in year three of an ill-advised seven-year, $172 million pact.
Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo just signed long-term extensions this winter and there’s no way president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski trades away his two future top-of-the-rotation arms. The same goes for J.T. Realmuto, whose fresh three-year, $45 million deal is likely to age like milk, killing any desire another team may have to bring him in.
While trading away stars on massive contracts is pretty rare, deadline sellers often ship out useful veterans on short-term deals. Unfortunately, there isn’t much luck there for the Phillies either, as almost everyone they have that fits that criteria has been awful.
Impending free agent Alec Bohm has been the worst hitter in all of baseball, while right field band-aid Adolis García has been as meh as meh can be with a .711 OPS thus far. Unlicensed pharmacist José Alvarado is barreling towards a mid-year release with his 7.45 ERA. Edmundo Sosa is the one bright spot among this group, but bench players usually don’t command a premium in trade talks.
The Phillies may be able to extract some value for a trio of players who have an additional year of team control remaining, but that would hamstring next year’s roster for a club that is ostensibly competing for a championship. If they do go down that route, Brad Keller and Brandon Marsh would likely be sought after, while another organization could take a crack at waking up Bryson Stott’s slumbering bat.
If Dombrowski decides to embrace a full teardown (which he certainly won’t), then Orion Kerkering would likely fetch a solid haul, and Jhoan Duran would probably be the best reliever available. Pulling the trigger could bring back some nice future assets, but would also cause rioting outside Citizens Bank Park.
To put it simply: the Phillies are stuck. They’re clearly not good enough to seriously compete for a World Series, and they have little to no minor league reinforcements on the way. However, they can’t embrace tanking, as their payroll is clogged up through most of the next decade and the fanbase won’t stand for another decade-long stretch of misery.
The Phillies only have one path forward and it isn’t a very appealing one. All that Dombrowski and company can do is hope that their top-heavy group of well-paid former stars can put Humpty Dumpty back together and make another deep playoff run. We’ve seen them do it before, but they’ve done nothing so far this year to instill any confidence that they can do it again.
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