Phillies still need bullpen help despite FanGraphs' projections

Although projected to be one of the best bullpens for the upcoming season, Phillies fans are still yearning for more to solidify the late-inning pitching.

Philadelphia Phillies reliever Matt Strahm
Philadelphia Phillies reliever Matt Strahm | Jim McIsaac/GettyImages

With an elite starting pitching staff and a solid bullpen behind them, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a great spot going into 2025, ranked as the third-best bullpen in MLB by projected fWAR, according to FanGraphs. But the numbers don't tell the whole story.

Ending 2024 on a sour note behind bad pitching performances and blown leads in the postseason already shines a dimmer-than-usual light on the arm barn. Add to that the losses of two of their premier relievers, Jeff Hoffman to the Toronto Blue Jays and Carlos Estévez, who recently inked a deal with the Kansas City Royals, and it would seem wrong that this group could still be a top unit in baseball.

While there were bad moments down the stretch, consistently, the Phillies bullpen put together good outings and helped win ball games. Coached by Caleb Cotham, the unit is able to bring energy into the late innings while still keeping a level head and staying the course. This season, however, will be a testament to their hard work this offseason and their ability to stay on the field.

Phillies still need bullpen help despite FanGraphs' projections thanks to 'closer-by-committee' approach

As of right now, the Phillies have four real back-end caliber pitchers in their bullpen, only one of which has had consistent time as a closer.

Jordan Romano, the newcomer to the squad, brings his 105 career saves and two All-star appearances to Philadelphia to likely be the Phillies' majority closer. The Canadian's career 2.90 ERA and experience pitching in big games in the AL East could have a big upside for manager Rob Thomson's pitching staff.

His recent injury history does leave some worried, as arm injuries are never something easy to come back from. Although it was stated by both the Blue Jays' and Phillies' training staffs that he will be ready to go in 2025. He has already been spotted throwing in Clearwater.

The other high-leverage pitchers are all returning from last season: Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering. With only 54 combined saves between the three (45 of which are Alvarado's), there is still some inconsistency late in games.

After a career-best 1.87 ERA in 2024, the luscious Strahm showed the holes in his armor during the MLB postseason, allowing four earned runs in only two innings, including the game-tying homer in the ninth inning of Game 2. While there are no direct signs of regression, it will be very difficult to replicate his elite performance from last season, and Steamer projections don't think he will.

Alvarado and Kerkering are similar pitchers in the fact that they have elite, unhittable pitches. Kerkering's sweeper is consistently ranked among the best pitches in the sport, while Alvarado's fastballs and sinkers bestowed on him the incredibly respected mantra "strike one, strike two, good luck." Both also have question marks, as the young righty has just over a year of experience and the veteran lefty has gone through long stretches of wildness. While it could very likely all click for them and show their true potential, it could just as likely go the other way.

Where the Phillies lack in true backend bullpen experience, they gain in overall ability. The Phillies currently have six to eight relievers who can perform at the major league level. This doesn't even include some question marks like Taijuan Walker and new addition Joe Ross, as well as top prospects like Seth Johnson, Griff McGarry and potentially the returning No. 8 prospect in baseball Andrew Painter.

The incredible performances over the past few seasons have not only drowned out the terrible sadness of the late 2010s bullpens but have added an increased expectation for the unit. As it stands, the bullpen is among the upper-echelon of pens in the league. Recent memory has rightfully brought doubts into the fans' trust in the late-inning relievers. The question will be if the pitchers the Phillies currently have are able to take that next step and round out a complete team.

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