It's no secret that Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been a disaster for most of this season. His latest performance was so odorous that Phillies fans were glad to see Taijuan Walker emerge from the bullpen — imagine saying that last season. But now that Nola has been placed on the 15-day IL with a right ankle sprain, the Phillies have avoided a potential catastrophe.
Before the injury announcement on Friday, Nola's next chance to redeem himself after Wednesday's meltdown would have come against the Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately, it was going to be at Coors Field. A matchup with the Rockies isn't necessarily scary, but the prospect of Nola pitching in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league was the stuff of nightmares.
The Rockies are bad. There's no way to sugar coat it. Their 7-33 start to the season was so abysmal that management relieved manager Bud Black of his duties earlier this week. They're now 7-37.
However, with the struggling Nola originally lined up to start the second game of the Phillies' West Coast road trip on Tuesday against the lowly Rockies, this could have been a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. You can decide which one is which.
Phillies dodge potential disaster after avoiding Aaron Nola's start at Coors Field
Nola has hit a new low this year, and his 6.16 ERA is close to the worst among qualified starters, ranking as the fourth-highest. Ironically, he's sandwiched between Rockies starters Kyle Freeland (6.15 ERA) and Antonio Senzatela (6.39 ERA), his probable opponent on Tuesday. At least they have their home ballpark to blame for those dreadful ERAs.
The deciding factor in the upcoming battle of struggling starter versus struggling offense might well have ended up being the venue. Sitting 5,200 feet above sea level, baseballs travel exceptionally well in the thin air of Coors Field. Not that it has helped the Rockies this season, whose offense is among the worst in the majors in pretty much every category you look at.
But based on its three-year rolling average of a 112 Statcast Park Factor (where 100 is the league average), Coors might not have been the best place for Nola to "get right." Even though the veteran right-hander is susceptible to the long ball — he has allowed 11 already with a career-high 22.4 percent HR/FB — Coors isn't actually the most dangerous park for home runs, ranking ninth, even behind Citizens Bank Park.
But it's the rest of the offense Nola would have had to worry about. Coors has the highest Park Factor for runs (125), on-base percentage (111), hits (115), singles (115) and triples (200) and ranks second in doubles (117). It's also one of the worst ballparks for strikeouts, with a 92 Park Factor.
For a pitcher with a 91 mph fastball and who's posting career-highs in 9.4 percent barrel rate and 43.6 percent hard-hit rate this year, you can see a path to how the Rockies could have continued Nola's rough campaign.
While Coors is nowhere near his worst road venue, we don't even have to worry about it at all now. In six career starts in Colorado, Nola has a 4.03 ERA with five home runs and a .260/.301/.418 slash line against. However, as we saw, even before the injury supposedly happened on May 9, this version of Nola isn't the same as year's past.
Even against the inept Rockies, taking Nola out West and putting him on the mound at Coors Field was a scary prospect that the Phillies can thankfully avoid. Now we just have to hope that when he returns from the injured list, he's closer to the Aaron Nola we're used to seeing.