This offseason has been tougher to digest than others in the past. The Philadelphia Phillies had a deal in place to acquire shortstop Bo Bichette before the New York Mets swooped in and won him over with a high AAV, short-term contract. The Mets had apparently been in contact with Bichette previous to their last-minute offer, but it's a gut punch knowing the Phillies reportedly offered $200 million across seven years and still couldn't land one of the big stars in free agency this winter.
Perhaps it's preference, but two of the biggest free agent stars, Bichette ($42 million AAV) and outfielder Kyle Tucker ($60 million AAV), both signed for substantial annual salaries on shorter deals with multiple opt-outs. The market is changing, with the big market teams like the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers spending absurd amounts of immediate money impossible for players to turn down.
The Phillies need to think more like that and with a large shift in payroll commitments on the horizon, they may have a real chance to do so in 2027 and beyond.
Phillies need to embrace new free agent market approach with their impending payroll flexibility
Over the last seven years, managing partner John Middleton has shelled out significant money for multiple stars on long-term free agent deals, like Bryce Harper (13 years, $330 million), Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million), Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million), and most recently Kyle Schwarber (five years, $150 million). Since president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski took the helm in the Phillies front office, the club has operated with the long term in mind.
All of those contracts were sizable but spread out across multiple years, lowering the annual value. The idea was always to have room to build the surrounding roster and eliminate the possibility of an opt-out. As fans just witnessed firsthand, the Phillies approach has left them empty-handed even with the allure of a large total offer sitting on the table.
They've had their limitations when it comes to the payroll, but 2027 could give the Phillies room to splurge on some big-money deals.
After re-signing J.T. Realmuto, FanGraphs estimates the Phillies' 2026 luxury tax payroll to be just over $317 million. Currently, their 2027 payroll is estimated to be $202 million. That's a whopping $115 million coming off the books after this season.
There will inevitably be holes to fill with that much turnover, but it leaves the Phillies primed to make a more expensive splash than normal.
The Phillies lost on Bichette this offseason, but he could opt out and become available again next offseason. The Phillies will have the flexibility to spend more aggressively. They need to accept and take advantage of the way that the free agent market is changing, with shorter-term deals at higher annual values, while still keeping the luxury tax in mind.
The Phillies don't like opt-outs, but they may even have to alter that stance. They might have to start offering opt-outs to have a chance in the new market.
These changes in philosophy could open the door to bigger names coming to Philadelphia. It would allow the Phillies to plug a hole with a star, even if just for a season.
It would be very different from what Phillies fans are used to with having their stars in Philadelphia for an extended period of time. It's always great to have big stars under contract, but getting over the hump with a massive one-year signing could be the difference between winning the World Series or going home too soon, again.