The Baseball Hall of Fame, or any Hall of Fame really, is always a tricky thing to evaluate. There are players who transcend the sport, as well as ones a notch below who still reached superstar status for an extended period of time. These folks are easy calls to the Hall.
Former Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bobby Abreu didn’t reach these levels, but the consistent excellence he showed throughout his career is causing many to re-examine his Hall of Fame case. Most crucially, this includes many of the writers who cast a ballot for Cooperstown.
In a recent piece for The Athletic, twelve of their writers revealed their ballots and justified their votes for this year (subscription required). Nine of them included Abreu on their list, and Bobby would be in good shape if he could maintain that 75 percent rate across all ballots, since that’s the magic number for induction.
Former Phillies star Bobby Abreu could find himself in Cooperstown soon thanks to growing support for his Hall of Fame candidacy
Of the writers who checked the box next to Abreu’s name, Zack Meisel took it upon himself to perform a comprehensive statistical analysis on Abreu’s career to put his numbers into perspective. This bit from Meisel encapsulates the totality of Abreu’s accomplishments:
"Only 12 players have had a season with 20-plus homers, 20-plus steals, 30-plus doubles and 100-plus walks. Abreu had seven such seasons, three more than anyone else. Only six players have had multiple seasons with those numbers: Abreu, Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Joe Morgan, Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout."
Meisel notes that Abreu is among the small group of 10 players in MLB history who have 250 homers, 250 steals, and 1,000 walks. The group, which Meisel says is "essentially a golden ticket to Cooperstown for those without ties to steroids," includes Bonds, Morgan, Rodríguez, Willie Mays, Gary Sheffield, Beltrán, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio and Derek Jeter.
Abreu had a career .291/.395/.475 slash line, with 2,470 hits, 400 steals and 60.2 bWAR. He hit 574 doubles, which ranks 25th all-time. The only non-Hall of Famers ahead of Abreu are Bonds, Pete Rose, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Luis Gonzalez, and Rafael Palmeiro. "That's two soon-to-be first-ballot Hall of Famers, plus three guys tied to scandal," per Meisel.
Meisel also notes that Abreu's 1,476 walks rank 20th all-time, with only Bonds, Rose, Eddie Yost and Darrell Evans as the players ahead of him who aren't in Cooperstown.
That’s pretty impressive stuff, and Meisel goes on to point out that while Abreu never finished any higher than 12th in MVP voting (which ironically came when he was with the Angels), that shouldn’t be held against him because he was a more complete player than many who finished ahead of him in voting totals. They may have hit more home runs than Abreu, but he bested the field in almost every other meaningful measurement.
Overall, it’s as rock solid of a case as anyone has made for Abreu’s Hall of Fame inclusion to date.
Even with this kind of support, Abreu is only hovering around the 40 percent mark on Ryan Thibodaux’s exhaustive Hall of Fame tracker, and he will probably see that number slip a little once all votes are revealed. So, he's not getting in this year. And with this being his seventh year on the ballot, he’ll have only three more kicks at the can before he falls off the writers’ ballot.
But there is hope yet.
Perhaps the best comparison for Abreu, albeit an imperfect one, is Larry Walker. Like Abreu, Walker was a “do it all” type of player who probably wasn’t fully appreciated while he was active.
Walker's Hall of Fame journey started off sluggishly, and he was polling even lower than Abreu is currently, collecting just 21.9 percent of votes in his seventh year on the ballot. But 21.9 jumped to 34.1, then to 54.6, before Walker finally cleared the hurdle in his final attempt by hitting 76.6 percent in year 10. If Abreu is going to be voted in, he may have to rely on the same kind of photo finish.
On the flip side, Abreu’s career accolades can’t compare to what Walker did. Walker won an MVP, three batting titles, seven Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers compared to Abreu’s lone Gold Glove (yes, he actually won one) and Silver Slugger.
Then again, Abreu didn’t have the benefit of playing his home games at Coors Field for a decade, where Walker did a ton of his damage. Abreu only played in 42 games at Coors in his career compared to 597 for Walker, so it's not a great sample to go by, but their slash lines there look like this:
Walker: .381/.462/.710
Abreu: .319/.433/.617
Walker was incredible in Colorado. No notes. But think of how much Abreu would have benefitted from just a few seasons there. Revisionist history for sure, but consider the fact that Walker was a career .282 hitter everywhere else besides Coors Field while Bobby Abreu hit .291 away from Coors in his career. In fact, he finished his career with more hits (a lot more, in fact), RBIs, runs scored, and steals than Walker.
Abreu didn’t take a backseat to Walker or any of his peers to whom he is compared. That matters, and voters will no doubt ruminate over this for the next few years.
Chase Utley has gotten a lot of the headlines, and deservedly so. But there is at least a decent chance that we see multiple Phillies voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame before the decade is out if Abreu’s case continues to gain this kind of steam. He might have enough juice to make it happen.