Grade the trade: Phillies send No. 1 prospect to White Sox for All-Star starter

With the Philadelphia Phillies looking to make a splash this offseason to retool their roster to compete again in 2025, their obvious priority appears to be mainly in the outfield and in their bullpen. However, that doesn’t stop the Phillies from potentially upgrading an area that could make them that much more unbeatable.

Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report recently had the Phillies as a potential landing spot for All-Star starter Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox via trade. His argument was that Crochet would essentially be a cheap replacement for the struggling Taijuan Walker, with Crochet having a projected salary of just $2.9 million in arbitration. 

Grade the trade: Phillies send No. 1 prospect to White Sox for All-Star starter

So what would it take to get Crochet to Philadelphia? The hypothetical deal would be as follows:

That seems like a huge ask for the Phillies, as they would be giving up their No. 1, No. 5 and No. 15 prospects according to MLB Pipeline for Crochet.

Aidan Miller has made huge strides in his growth and development in the minors this past season, advancing through three levels to Double-A. He was also named by Pipeline as the Phillies’ hottest-hitting prospect to end the 2024 minor league season. With his potential appearing limitless, Miller should probably be closer to the untouchable category for the Phillies.

Eduardo Tait produced a stellar minor league season in which he batted .302 with 11 home runs and 73 RBI in just 79 games split between the FCL Phillies and Clearwater Threshers. His breakout year propelled him into the Phillies' top five prospects by the year’s end. He could even be vying to be the potential heir to J.T. Realmuto down the road.

Seth Johnson was acquired by the Phillies from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline along with Moisés Chace in exchange for Gregory Soto. As a former first-round pick back in the 2019 MLB Draft, Johnson had shown great promise by maintaining a less than 3.00 ERA in his five years in the minors while striking out 275 in 243 2/3 total innings pitched. Although his debut with the Phillies was worth forgetting, he could be a valuable middle-to-backend of the rotation piece in the near future, having just turned 26 recently.

Crochet is coming off an All-Star season in his first year as a starter in the big leagues. In 32 starts, he posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a whopping 209 strikeouts in just 146 innings. However, he finished the second half of 2024 on an innings limit that saw him not last longer than four innings in any of those starts.

Crochet actually struggled to a 4.84 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with opposing batters hitting at a .269 clip in his final 14 appearances. Looking further back, Crochet has had a bumpy journey so far in the majors. He put together a solid 2021 season in his rookie year as a reliever, which was then followed by Tommy John surgery that knocked out his 2022 season. When he returned from his injury in 2023, he struggled a bit with his control and command, leading to a dismal 1.97 WHIP in just 13 relief appearances.

The fact that Crochet has only one official season as a starter under his belt, along with showing some signs of inconsistency with his control along the way, he doesn’t have enough of a track record to prove that he could maintain ace-like status. Another point to keep in mind is the fact that he has also undergone major elbow reconstructive surgery very early in his career as well.

With the potential huge package that the Phillies are giving up, they should get a healthy and proven No. 1 starter in return, which, in this case, isn’t a guarantee. From a long-term perspective, the Phillies could be sacrificing a franchise infielder, a star catcher and a solid rotation pitcher for a flamethrower with great promise who could still end up being a boom or bust candidate, depending on how he pans out.

With starting pitching not an urgent need as of this moment, the Phillies shouldn’t blow their farm system for something that isn’t a sure thing despite the massive potential, making it a trade grade of B-. Nevertheless, given their huge interest in Crochet from the trade deadline, it could still end up happening.

Trade Grade: B-

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