The frustrating Andrew Painter reality Phillies are forced to live with

The Philadelphia Phillies lost a clunker on Wednesday and it was largely one person’s fault: Andrew Painter. The formerly untouchable prospect has been a complete disaster in his first taste of the big leagues and it’s put his club in an untenable spot. They can’t trade him and they can’t give up on him. All they can do is pray he figures it out. 

As the 13th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter arrived with the Phillies to a tremendous amount of fanfare. The Floridian hurler raised his considerable stock by posting a magnificent 1.56 ERA across three minor league levels in his first professional season. The expectation was for Painter to make an impact in the big leagues at just 20 years old in 2023.

Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery scuttled that plan and the wunderkind missed the entirety of the 2023 and 2024 minor league seasons. He received his first taste of Triple-A action last year, but was torched to the tune of a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts. 

The Phillies decided to live or die with their hopeful future ace, and gave him the fifth starter job to open this season. Alongside the diminishing Aaron Nola and the corpse of Taijuan Walker, the Phils were asking a lot of the back end of their rotation. 

That has panned out exactly as poorly as everyone expected, with Nola limping to a 5.86 ERA thus far and Walker putting up a ghastly 9.13 mark before being released. Given the status of both pitchers as past their prime, it was unfortunate but not unexpected to see them fail to deliver. On the other hand, Painter still has a boatload of potential, which makes his struggles even more disappointing. 

Andrew Painter is killing the Phillies, and no one can fix it but him

Painter has pitched in 14 contests for the Phillies so far, and hardly any of them have been encouraging. There was the migraine game against the Arizona Diamondbacks where he showed some moxie, but overall he’s proven himself not to be a major league-caliber pitcher at this point. Over 65 total innings, the 23-year-old has been blasted for 51 earned runs. He’s surrendered 84 hits, including a whopping 14 home runs, and walked 24 batters while striking out just 53. 

The talent that made Painter so tantalizing as a prospect has completely disappeared since he underwent Tommy John surgery, and his electric arsenal that allowed him to blow away opposing hitters has given way to a collection of flat offerings that lacks a putaway pitch.

Wednesday’s latest meltdown in which he yielded six earned runs in just two innings of work proved to be the final nail in his coffin for the time being, as he was optioned to Triple-A later that day. Now the question begs to be asked: who will the Phillies replace him with?

The current stock at Lehigh Valley is far from inspiring, comprised of retreads such as Alan Rangel, Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson. Last year’s first-rounder Gage Wood has been making waves at Double-A, but he has all of a baker’s dozen career minor league games to his name and it would be unwise to rush his development. The Phillies could explore the trade market for a suitable fifth starter, but with well over a month until the deadline they’ll be hard pressed to find the right guy at the right price. 

Speaking of trades, some observers have posited the idea of trading Painter himself in a deal for some major league reinforcements. Considering the lackluster state of the farm system, he’s still one of the club’s best assets if they want to go big game hunting. However, Painter’s disastrous first season has certainly diminished his trade value to the point that flipping him now would be selling for pennies on the dollar. Such a trade would be criminal mismanagement, considering how highly regarded he was just a season or two ago. 

So how does Andrew Painter rebuild his trade value? By pitching well in the big leagues of course. Unfortunately, the Phillies are not in a position to grant him the runway to hopefully regain his value, considering the fact that they’re in the heat of a playoff race and can’t afford to wave the white flag every time he takes the hill.

So why don’t the Phillies give Painter all the time he needs in the minors to let him work things out in a low-pressure environment? Well, because there’s no one to replace him with long-term. Rangel, Wilson, Davidson, or whichever collection of spare parts replaces Painter in the Phillies’ rotation will likely be less of an upgrade and more of a new coat of paint on the same broken down jalopy.

That’s the crux of the Phillies’ Andrew Painter problem. There’s nothing they can do with him at the moment. They can’t trade him to improve the team because he’s tanked his value to the point that it’s organizational suicide. They can’t let him rebuild that value in the majors because he’s throwing away winnable games. The only thing they can do is pray. 

The Phillies may have hit pause on the Andrew Painter experience in the big leagues for now, but the problem still persists. The only way things get better is if Painter develops into what everyone wants him to be, or even just a reasonable facsimile of that. The Phillies can’t fix their Andrew Painter problem. Only Painter can fix it.

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