The Major League Baseball trade deadline is a little more than a month away. The rumor mill has been slow to pick up, with so many teams still on the playoff bubble, so there hasn't been quite the deluge of rumors we're used to seeing five weeks out from the July 31 deadline. One team that everyone has known will be a deadline buyer all season is the Philadelphia Phillies.
But what will the Phillies be shopping for as the deadline approaches?
Despite what experts in the media think will happen — and what fans desperately want to happen — we had better be prepared for the very real chance that the Phillies' trade deadline will be an underwhelming affair. Despite Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski's history of aggressive trades to put his teams over the top, it might not be that way this time around.
We know we can cross off the starting rotation, at least. That looks to be in good shape heading into the second half, despite Aaron Nola being on the shelf until mid-August, likely.
In a recent appearance on the Starkville podcast, Dombrowski told hosts Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville that he's not looking at upgrading the rotation. It would be difficult to upgrade what has been the strength of the team halfway through the season. Phillies' starters rank fourth in the majors with a 3.39 ERA and the most innings thrown, with 454 1/3 frames under their collective belts.
So, what's on Dombrowski's radar?
Don't expect Dave Dombrowski, Phillies to add multiple high-end bullpen arms at trade deadline
There's one true weak post on this roster, and it's the bullpen. Spurred by the relief corps' shaky performance, which has been downright awful at times, the issues have been compounded by José Alvarado's PED suspension. The bullpen ranks 25th with a 4.63 ERA entering Thursday. That's despite throwing the second-fewest innings (260 2/3) in the majors. So it's not like Phillies relievers have been heavily taxed. They're just not very good.
"I think it's logical to assume the bullpen part of it," Dombrowski said about his focus for the trade deadline. "Because when you look at your club, it's not going to be starting pitching. So it's not going to be that."
Alright, let's get to work fixing that bullpen, Dave!
The bullpen is thin, and many have been assuming that the Phillies will look to add at least two relief arms by the time July 31 rolls around. Unfortunately, as Stark notes in his article for The Athletic, Dombrowski doesn't sound like he's shopping for multiple high-leverage relievers (subscription required).
"The postseason bullpen is a lot different than the regular season bullpen," Dombrowski said about structuring a postseason bullpen. "Because in the National League this year, if you advance past the Wild Card round … you play five games [in the NLDS]. Well, the way the schedule is, you only need three starting pitchers during that time period. So if you have five [starters], two of them can go into the bullpen … Plus, if you have additional [surplus starters], they can go into the bullpen there."
So, it sounds like instead of a multipart haul of back end arms at the deadline, Phillies fans should expect one. With, right now, a surplus of starting pitching, we'll likely see one or more starters plying their trade in relief this October. The Athletic's Matt Gelb previously theorized that it would be one of the left-handed starters (subscription required). Moving one (or more) of Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo into a relief role in the playoffs would negate the need for the front office to focus on acquiring a left-handed reliever, and just try to get the best arm possible.
Phillies also need to add an outfielder, but it might not come via trade
As long as Dombrowski goes out and gets a top-end bullpen arm, we're fine with that plan. As long as he does something about the outfield. Right?
The free agent addition of left fielder Max Kepler has been, overall, a disappointing experiment. Thanks to his drastic inconsistency, plus the unending questions about the center field platoon between Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas, the thinking around Philadelphia is that the outfield will be an area of concern at the deadline for the Phillies.
The outfield ranks 23rd in the majors with 0.7 fWAR and has been below average in creating offense, with a .692 OPS that ranks 21st, and a 93 wRC+, the sixth-lowest in the league.
But not so fast. Again, Dombrowski doesn't sound like he's going to make any aggressive moves to help the outfield, and in turn, the lineup. At least not via trade.
Dombrowski said, "we like where we are right now," regarding the lineup. He then mentioned how his Boston Red Sox called up Rafael Devers (in 2018) and Andrew Benintendi (in 2016) and they performed well as late-season additions. He seems to be hinting that fans should expect an internal addition, rather than an external piece that would cost prospect capital.
All in all, what Dombrowski says in the final week of June doesn't lock him and the Phillies into that approach. As the July trade deadline season heats up, there's every chance that he does go big to put this obviously flawed Phillies team over the top.
Then again, we should be prepared for an underwhelming trade deadline, just in case.