Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Ranger Suárez is one of the club's players heading into free agency after the 2025 season. Suárez will be a valued piece of the Phillies' rotation down the stretch, and both the Phillies and Suárez want him to be the same cool, calm and collected guy they've gotten the last couple of years in the postseason. The Phillies got that version earlier in the season from Suárez with an ERA as low as 1.99 on July 5.
Suárez has remained efficient as a starter, but there's real concern over his dip in velocity that continued in his latest outing against the Reds, per Bob Cooney of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He's not known as a high-velocity pitcher, nor has he ever been, but his sinker specifically has dipped in velocity to under 90 mph dating back to July 20.
Is it time to worry about Ranger Suárez and his sudden dip in velocity?
According to Statcast, over his last five starts, he's averaged 89.6 mph, 88.7 mph, 89.1 mph, 88.9 mph and 88.9 mph. For the season, he's averaged 90.1 mph in 18 starts. It's also a drop overall from the 90.8 mph he averaged in 2024 and 92.8 in 2023. The sinker has also remained his most used pitch since he debuted.
It's no surprise that Suárez doesn't have the arm of Zack Wheeler and isn't expected to blow batters out of the water with high heat. He's a control specialist who relies heavily on precision and finesse to get batters out, but a dip in velocity for him rings alarm bells. According to MLB.com's Paul Casella, Suárez hasn't mentioned any sort of physical issue. Phillies manager Rob Thomson doesn't get any sense that he's battling anything.
“He says he's fine,” manager Rob Thomson said, per Casella.
In Suárez's last six starts dating back to July 11, he has pitched to a dreadful 6.11 ERA across 35 1/3 innings. Suárez was one of the most consistent starters in baseball during the first half, which almost earned him his second consecutive All-Star appearance. Now, the idea of fatigue has been brought up and has given the club pause with less than two months until the postseason.
“I feel good. I feel way better,” Suárez said, per Casella. “Atlanta was one of those days where you're like, 'Oh, this is what I have [today].' Afterwards, and the starts since that one, I've felt way better.”
Suárez also missed the first month of the regular season with back issues similar to what he has fought in previous seasons. There was thought that his back could be flaring up again, but Suárez remains adamant that he feels fine. Thomson has decided to move to a six-man rotation with Aaron Nola returning from the injured list on Sunday.
Suárez needs to be healthy in order to give the Phillies the best chance to win. If it takes a six-man rotation for the last six weeks of the regular season or even just an inning count, it's worth maintaining to give him and the Phillies the best chance to succeed.