4 areas where the Phillies absolutely need to invest this winter
The Philadelphia Phillies, who have found recent success in the past three postseasons, are starting to hit their wall. After another disappointing end to the postseason, some glaring holes came to a head. This offseason, the front office has multiple areas to attend to to make them a more complete team.
Each year since their first MLB playoff appearance in 10 seasons, the team has regressed first reaching the World Series in 2022, then the NLCS in 2023, before being eliminated in their first series, the NLDS in 2024. Each year, a step back.
The mentality going into last offseason was simple: run it back. The team had just added Trea Turner the year prior and had gone about as far as you can go without making it to the final dance, Game 7 of the NLCS. With lackluster pitching and an ice-cold lineup come the end of that matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks, most thought that if the Phillies could get even 50 percent more production out of the lineup in the postseason, it would be enough to win it all.
The 2024 MLB playoffs proved that was not the case. In yet another year in which the bats went silent, inconsistent pitching blew games, and the ultimate goal was not achieved. While the past is in the past, it does give hope to the future as it is highly unlikely that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and managing partner John Middleton run the same playbook this upcoming offseason. Moves will need to be made.
4 areas where the Phillies absolutely need to invest this winter
The 2023 playoffs allowed the Phillies to hide and work around the holes in their game as the competition was weaker, and the finish left hope for fans. Unfortunately, 2024 ended the hope and exposed the problems in the lineup from top to bottom, including approach and situational hitting. The pitching staff did no favors either, with the lack of depth and clutch pitching being the Phillies' ultimate demise.
Being either time or money, the front office needs to look both inward and externally for not just quick patches but full-time solutions to some controllable issues that could put the team over the top.
The Phillies need to invest in a corner outfielder
All season, the Phillies had a problem with the outfield. While their initial fixes included the offseason signing of Whit Merrifield and a leap in development from Johan Rojas, most know how that panned out.
This led to the starting left fielder in a must-win game in October being 29-year-old rookie Weston Wilson, who had less than 100 MLB plate appearances. Coming off last year, when the season ended on a Jake Cave pop-out, it's tough to swallow.
With Brandon Marsh leaning more and more toward the mold of a platoon player, the Phillies need an outfielder who can pummel lefties.
In essence, seven of the nine hitting positions are locked in for next season, barring any crazy deals or happenings, three being left-handers. If Marsh is to be the center fielder, that adds another, leaving the lineup against right-handed pitching in good shape.
If Stott still needs to be platooned, like he was down the stretch and into the postseason, along with Marsh, the Phillies lineup against left-handed pitching would include Edmundo Sosa and the combination of two of either Rojas, Wilson, or Austin Hays — nowhere near as solid.
There are not many internal options that the Phillies can trust to have good at-bats at the bottom of the lineup. They are young, unreliable, and inconsistent. They need to look outward at some pending free agents to help fill the big void in the outfield.
The 2024 MLBPA's Comeback Player of the Year Tyler O'Neill is a free agent and could fit nicely into left field. His 1.180 OPS against left-handed pitching, as well as being in the 65th percentile for chase rate, adds another notch on the pole for opposing starters to get through. His market is projected to be $16 million AAV per Spotrac.
Other options in free agency could include Anthony Santander, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles and coming fresh off a 44-homer season, or Jurickson Profar, who had a career resurgence in San Diego with the Padres. The subpar defense and likely bigger market for Santander could deter the Phillies, but contracts coming off the books in upcoming years could allow Dombrowski and Middleton to reach a little deeper into their pockets.
The Phillies need to invest in professional hitting
Another common problem across not only the series against the New York Mets but almost the whole second half of 2024 was the uncompetitive at-bats at points. While hitting a baseball is the most difficult thing to do in all of sports, the approach and results that some Phillies hitters were taking during that time were unfathomable.
The Phillies ranked sixth-worst in baseball in chase rate this past season at 30.3 percent, only two points behind the major league-leading Miami Marlins. Combine that with the sixth-lowest chase contact percentage, and you have a recipe for bad-looking swings. The above-average chase percentages were emphasized by the incredibly bad swings Phillies hitters took, making fans even more aware and upset at the fact.
Bryce Harper said the Phillies need to stop chasing at the plate.@KYWNewsradio pic.twitter.com/2MdiD7ebo4
— Dave Uram (@MrUram) October 6, 2024
What the Phillies need to invest in this offseason is more "professional" type hitting. The approach of swinging hard, so if you make contact, you do damage, is not working. While there can be players on the roster who do that and excel at it, when five or more of your hitters are similar, there becomes too large of a portion of the lineup that can slump at once.
Players with approaches like Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm at points split the lineup and allow for more strikeouts from the run producers. Contact first with an emphasis on driving the gap instead of trying to elevate and shortening the zone could help with the Phillies improve on the 3.61 runners left in scoring position per game, the third-worst mark in MLB.
This kind of investment needs to be made from within, in how the team goes about its at-bats. Hitting coach Kevin Long needs to work with hitters like Rojas, Turner, and Marsh to get back to the ball-in-play mindset that has made them outstanding during stretches of their careers.
“I think we really have to get them to buy into using the entire field," manager Rob Thomson said about the team's plate approach in his season-ending press conference. "Everybody talks about chase rate. I think just doing that will cut down on chase rate.”
The Phillies can get free added value this way while also looking outward for an on-base hitter through trade or free agency.
The Phillies need to invest in high-leverage bullpen arms
While the 2024 bullpen was not outstanding by any means, what happened in this year's playoffs was a disaster.
Through four games in the NLDS, the bullpen allowed 20 hits and 16 earned runs, leading to an 11.37 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP. Multiple times, the Phillies sent one of their two All-Star relievers out in high-leverage opportunities to either hold the Mets or slam the door shut, and every time, they blew it.
"I’m really not sure what happened at that point," Dombrowski said about the postseason bullpen meltdown in his season-ending press conference. "I was surprised as anybody, as I think all of us were at that point because they had pitched efficiently. They’ve been in the postseason before. They’re not young guys … they’ve had the experience. That probably surprised me more than anything."
The lineup didn't do them any favors, as the tight games and little run support unquestionably added pressure on the bullpen's shoulders on the mound. That being said, when you send relievers like Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estévez and Matt Strahm out, you expect to win those games. This offseason, the Phillies will look to add arms, not just lose them.
Both of the former Colorado Rockie teammates, Estévez and Hoffman are free agents. The former Los Angeles Angels veteran Estévez is expecting a multi-year deal over the $10 million AAV mark. Hoffman, on the other hand, is valued at just over $6 million, according to Spotrac. While Estévez's closing experience and tenure will likely earn him a bigger deal, Hoffman's AAV could creep up as teams in postseason position looking to win now could try and pounce on what seems to be his peak.
With everyone else in the bullpen returning, the hope would be to at least re-sign one of the big arms and add to it with complimentary pieces. While finding a reliable arm is not easy, the Phillies had a young pitcher explode on the scene and make an impact early with young righty Orion Kerkering.
They could bank on developing an arm or two from the farm or make a splash and add more high-leverage types, such as Tanner Scott, or some relievers who just appeared in the World Series, like the Dodgers' Blake Treinen or the Yankees' Tommy Kahnle or Clay Holmes.
The Phillies need to invest in starting pitching depth
The Phillies started 2024 hot, as one of the best, if not the best, team in MLB. Through the first half, the Phillies boasted a 62-34 record, a .646 winning percentage. Post All-Star break, the Phillies made a complete U-turn, going 33-33, an exact .500 record. One of the biggest reasons for this was their lack of pitching depth.
Throughout the regular season, manager Rob Thomson trotted out 12 different starting pitchers, only seven of which that had major league starting experience. A string of injuries to Spencer Turnbull, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez, along with some poor performances from the latter two, left the team stuck and almost out of options.
Players like Kolby Allard, Tyler Phillips and Seth Johnson making spot starts down the stretch for a postseason-bound team that many dubbed the best team in baseball was not a very good look. They had their moments, but they were usually followed by a lot more bad moments, which not only led to more losses but also brought down the team around them. Days when Walker was on the mound you could find endless posts on social media site X about how the game was a scheduled loss or other negative comments.
A fifth (and beyond) starter can do more than just give you a few innings every fifth day. They can go out and compete and give you a real chance, even having their own role on a postseason team like Noah Syndergaard did for the Phillies just a couple of seasons ago. Turnbull, the former Detroit Tiger, was a great addition last offseason when healthy. His 2.65 ERA was the lowest of any supplementary starter.
The Phillies are expecting to get their top pitching prospect Andrew Painter back in 2025 and he will likely be a part of the rotation. The other farm options include Mick Abel and Griff McGarry who have shown flashes of elite potential but have not been up to par this season. Turnbull will be a top option for a new contract as he performed well with the squad in limited opportunities.
Other free agent starting pitcher names, such as Shane Bieber or Frankie Montas, could intrigue the front office enough to spend the cash.
If the Phillies want to take the next step in 2025, they can not continue to wave the white flag every fifth game in hopes of a miracle.
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