The Philadelphia Phillies were riding high heading into Saturday night's matchup with the New York Mets. After laughing their way to a decisive victory in the series opener on Friday, they turned to rookie starter Mick Abel in Game 2.
Things didn't go as planned for the 23-year-old right-hander. Abel, who had just rejoined MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospect rankings, didn't fair well against the NL East rival Mets, who walked away with an 11-4 win. He lasted just three innings, using 73 pitches and allowing four runs (all on solo home runs) on six hits, while recording just one strikeout. It was, overall, an entirely forgettable outing.
Breaking down what went wrong for Mick Abel against the Mets
It was just Abel's fifth start in the majors, so there is still some developing and learning as he goes along. But what went so wrong for Abel on Saturday night?
1. Didn't locate his fastball
Abel said it himself after the game. He didn't have command of his fastball, the pitch he relies on to set up at-bats. He had plenty of velocity. He threw all of his pitches faster than his season average in this start, with his four-seamer topping out at 98.1 mph.
But, as pointed out by MLB.com's Paul Casella, Abel left too many pitches up in the zone and over the plate. The Mets hitters took advantage.
“I’ve got to just take it as it is, be honest with myself,” Abel said, per Casella. “I wasn’t locating my fastball, so that’s what I’m going to get after in my bullpen [session] this week.”
Mick Abel on how he can rebound after this tough start
— On Pattison (@OnPattison) June 22, 2025
(Via @TimKellySports) pic.twitter.com/omftK8CVJB
2. Too much hard contact
Abel's surface numbers on the season looked impressive before Saturday's start. He entered the game with a 2.21 ERA, 18 strikeouts and just four walks in 23 1/3 innings. However, under the hood, there were some worrying trends.
One of those was the amount of hard contact he had been giving up in his first four starts. Against Pittsburgh, Toronto, Chicago and Miami, hitters had managed a 93.2 mph average exit velocity on balls in play. Abel had gotten away with that, and a 50.8 percent hard-hit rate, by limiting the number of times hitters managed to barrel the ball.
Abel entered Saturday with an 8.5 percent barrel rate (right around the league average of 8.6 percent), allowing just five barrels. That caught up to him against the Mets, who barreled four balls. Even though his average exit velocity in this one was down to 90.1 mph, the ones they did crush went over the fence at Citizens Bank Park.
Here are the exit velocities from the four home runs Abel allowed:
- Brandon Nimmo: 102.6 mph
- Francisco Lindor 102.3mph
- Brandon Nimmo: 96.1 mph
- Juan Soto: 110.1 mph
AND NOW @JuanSoto25_!!! pic.twitter.com/rixLkI4GWU
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 22, 2025
3. Not making good on two-strike counts
As pitching legend John Smoltz mentioned on the FOX broadcast multiple times throughout Abel's short outing, the youngster had no problem getting to two strikes against Mets hitters. The problem was, he couldn't put them away when he had them on the ropes, as his lone strikeout on the evening shows.
Abel had 10 batters in two-strike counts. He allowed four hits, three of them home runs. He had four batters down 0-2, managing just the one strikeout while giving up two hits.
It's something he had struggled with in his previous starts, not including his spectacular MLB debut against the Pirates. He recorded six strikeouts in seven 0-2 counts against Pittsburgh. But over his next three starts, he managed just two punch outs in 14 0-2 counts, with a disturbing .643 slugging percentage against and a .359 wOBA in those situations.
All that being said, it looks like Abel is here to stay in the fifth starter spot until Aaron Nola is ready to return. So, the Phillies and the fans will hope he can work through these issues and get back to the pitcher we know he can be.