Phillies: Zach Eflin on pace for best season of career

The Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation has been incredibly reliable and productive through a month and change of the 2021 season, mainly because of its top three arms — Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin.

Entering Thursday, the Phillies rotation ranks eighth in WAR (3.4), 13th in ERA (4.07) and 12th in FIP (3.82). Phillies starters have also stranded baserunners at a 75.3 percent clip — the eighth-best rate in the league.

Nola, fresh off two Top-10 Cy Young finishes (2018, 2020) in his last three seasons, holds a 2.89 ERA through six starts with two 10-strikeout games and his first career nine-inning shutout on April 18 against St. Louis. Wheeler, who signed a five-year, $118 million deal before the 2020 season, has a 3.49 ERA in six starts — which includes a seven-scoreless-inning, 10-strikeout gem in his season debut.

But those two get enough of the attention and headlines. The third member of this trio, Eflin, isn’t as big of a name, nor does he have the resume to stack up with the other two. However, he’s meant just as much to the Phillies’ success so far.

Phillies RHP Zach Eflin is off to the best start of his career

Acquired for a 36-year-old Jimmy Rollins in a December 2014 trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers — one of the best Phillies trades of the last decade — Eflin is off to the best start of his career, quietly producing better than the average No. 3 starter.

Through six starts, he’s posting career-best numbers — with a 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.51 FIP, and 116 ERA+, which is 16 percent above league average. He’s already accumulated 1.3 WAR, tied for 14th among pitchers this season, and he’s on pace to shatter his career-high of 1.5 that he set in 2020.

Eflin isn’t an overpowering pitcher like his 6-6, 220-pound frame would suggest, but he’s finding success in other ways.

How has Zach Eflin been successful?

Eflin’s early dominance starts with his control, command and efficiency on the mound. Translation: limiting walks.

Eflin walked 48 batters in 163 1/3 innings (2.6 BB/9) in 2019, then 15 in 59 innings (2.3 BB/9) in 2020, and hasn’t been a high-walk guy throughout his career. But this year, he’s really taken his game to a new level — with just two walks allowed in 38 2/3 innings (0.5 BB/9) and none in his last four starts.

The right-hander is getting ahead of hitters with a career-best 69.4 percent first-pitch strike rate, up from 63.7 in 2020. He’s taken full advantage of working ahead in the count. His walk percentage, which dropped from 6.8 percent in 2019 to 6.1 percent in 2020, is down to a microscopic 1.3 percent so far in 2021 — putting Eflin in the 99th percentile among qualifiers in the category.

Eflin’s 17.00 K/BB ratio fourth-best among qualified pitchers, behind Corbin Burnes (INF, 0.00), Gerrit Cole (20.67, 62 K/3 BB) and Walker Buehler (19.50, 39 K/2 BB). Eflin’s 0.47 BB/9 ratio ranks second to only Burnes (0.00 BB/9). Burnes — who is on the COVID-19 injured list — actually fell off the qualifiers list last night, but for this article, we’ll still count him on there.

Those are going to be two tough leaderboards for Eflin to stay on, but it’s encouraging to see the former first-round pick ranked among the game’s elite arms early on.

He’s doing all this while averaging 14.17 pitches per inning, the third-best mark in the majors. Eflin also has the league’s fourth-highest strike rate at 69.9 percent. Both factors have helped him go deep into games, as he’s tossed at least six innings in all six of his outings, with four quality starts.

Phillies RHP Zach Eflin is pitching better than he ever has.

A a time when his average fastball velocity is down from 93.8 mph in 2020 to 92.3 mph in 2021, a difference of 1.5 mph, Zach Eflin is still finding success.

In the current “velocity-over-everything” era, any drop in a pitcher’s heater is perceived as concerning. A drop of more than a full mile per hour is especially noticeable. But, it’s the first week of May. Pitchers are still building up their arm strength and teams don’t want their guys going all out too soon — especially this year as pitchers are tasked with adjusting from a 60-game season, filled with unprecedented changes, back to a 162-game schedule.

It’s too early to look into Eflin’s velocity and know what to make of it, but it’s worth noting. What’s concerning right now is the number of hits and hard contact he’s giving up.

While he has done a great job limiting free passes and working quick innings, Eflin has allowed a league-leading 43 hits — an average of more than one per inning — and has allowed seven or more hits in four of his six outings. He’s also given up a MLB-leading 59 “hard-hit” balls (any batted ball 95+ mph) — nine more than Carlos Martinez, who is second on the list with 50.

Eflin’s hard-hit rate has ballooned from 32.7 percent in 2020 to 48.8 percent in 2021, meaning almost half the contact he’s giving up this season qualifies as hard contact. It’s the seventh-highest overall hard-hit rate among qualified pitchers this season. Eflin’s 16.1 percentage-point increase in that category is the 13th-biggest year-to-year increase among qualified pitchers, including fourth-highest among starting pitchers.

Can he continue to pitch this well while allowing this many hits and an uncomfortable hard-contact rate?