Phillies: Zach Eflin on pace for best season of career

Phillies RHP Zach Eflin is pitching better than he ever has.

A a time when his average fastball velocity is down from 93.8 mph in 2020 to 92.3 mph in 2021, a difference of 1.5 mph, Zach Eflin is still finding success.

In the current “velocity-over-everything” era, any drop in a pitcher’s heater is perceived as concerning. A drop of more than a full mile per hour is especially noticeable. But, it’s the first week of May. Pitchers are still building up their arm strength and teams don’t want their guys going all out too soon — especially this year as pitchers are tasked with adjusting from a 60-game season, filled with unprecedented changes, back to a 162-game schedule.

It’s too early to look into Eflin’s velocity and know what to make of it, but it’s worth noting. What’s concerning right now is the number of hits and hard contact he’s giving up.

While he has done a great job limiting free passes and working quick innings, Eflin has allowed a league-leading 43 hits — an average of more than one per inning — and has allowed seven or more hits in four of his six outings. He’s also given up a MLB-leading 59 “hard-hit” balls (any batted ball 95+ mph) — nine more than Carlos Martinez, who is second on the list with 50.

Eflin’s hard-hit rate has ballooned from 32.7 percent in 2020 to 48.8 percent in 2021, meaning almost half the contact he’s giving up this season qualifies as hard contact. It’s the seventh-highest overall hard-hit rate among qualified pitchers this season. Eflin’s 16.1 percentage-point increase in that category is the 13th-biggest year-to-year increase among qualified pitchers, including fourth-highest among starting pitchers.

Can he continue to pitch this well while allowing this many hits and an uncomfortable hard-contact rate?