Phillies: Opening week a test for Girardi, Wheeler, Gregorius
The Phillies’ opening week games against the Marlins and Yankees will present an interesting test for their three newcomers
The Philadelphia Phillies are scheduled to start the regular season at home, with three games against the Miami Marlins and two games against the New York Yankees, before hitting the road for two away games opposite their 2009 World Series rival in the Bronx.
The fact that the Phillies will square off against the Marlins and Yankees on opening week makes it an interesting test for their top-three offseason additions. For manager Joe Girardi, his return to the skipper role comes against the two teams he’s managed in the past.
Girardi’s first season in that role came in 2006 with the then-Florida Marlins, before spending 10 seasons managing the Yankees from 2008 and 2017.
His first regular-season week with the Phillies will allow him to win series against the Marlins and the Yankees, something that he’s never done — kind of.
In 2006, the Marlins played three games against the Yankees, with New York taking the series 2-1.
With the Yankees, Girardi had a pair of opportunities to face the Marlins. In 2009, the teams played three games, with Miami taking the series 2-1. In 2015, the teams played four consecutive games, each winning twice. Two of those games were in Miami, while the other two were in New York. If you consider them as separate series, then Girardi was able to win one, with the Yankees taking both games in New York.
Either way, it’s Girardi’s first chance to win three games against the Marlins or the Yankees in a single stretch.
Opening week will also test the abilities of Phillies manager Joe Girardi
Opening week will also test Girardi’s abilities, given who the Phillies will be facing – a team that’s recently had their number and the team expected to be the best in the American League.
Despite the Phillies being the better team, the Marlins have had their number over the past two seasons.
In 2018, Philadelphia finished 16.5 games ahead of Miami in the NL East, before finishing 24 games better in 2019.
Despite the separation in their records, the two teams have been about even in head-to-head. The Phillies won 11 of 19 games in 2018, while the Marlins won 10 of 19 games last season.
Even with an improved roster in 2019, the Phillies lost a season-series to a division rival that had 24 fewer wins and had the third-worst record in the MLB.
Meanwhile, the Yankees enter 2020 following a season where they posted the third-best record in the majors (behind the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers) and lost the ALCS to Houston in six games.
Now, the Yankees have top free agent Gerrit Cole, whose career began with the Pittsburgh Pirates and blossomed in recent years with the scandal-riddled Houston Astros. The Yankees are considered by many to be the top team in the American League and a top threat to win the World Series.
A team that’s had your number and a top American League contender will be tough to beat. But, in a shortened season where every game matters that much more, the opening week will be a test for the Phillies and their new skipper.
Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has some good history with the Marlins, but some bad history with the Yankees.
The right-handed pitcher is expected to be second in the Phillies rotation behind Aaron Nola, though he’s on the fence about whether to play this season with his first child on the way.
If he does play, his first start could come in the second game against the Marlins, a team he’s done historically well against.
Wheeler has a 7-3 record, 1.91 ERA, and 0.933 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Marlins.
The ERA and WHIP are his best against any team he’s faced more than twice, while the seven wins and his 105 strikeouts are the most he’s had against any team.
Of course, spending his previous five seasons with the New York Mets, he’s had a higher number of starts against the other four NL East teams, which helps with the win and strikeout totals.
Still, the Marlins are a team he’s proven capable of beating.
The Yankees, however, are a team that Wheeler’s struggled against as recently as last season.
If Wheeler starts game two of the season in a five-man rotation, he’ll line-up to start the second game in New York.
Wheeler has a 0-1 record, 7.04 ERA and 1.957 WHIP in three starts against the Yankees.
Two of those starts came last season, where he gave up five earned runs off of 10 hits and a walk in 4.2 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium in June, before giving up two earned runs off of five hits and a walk in 6.1 innings pitched at Citi Field in July.
His previous start came at Yankee Stadium in 2014, where he gave up five earned runs off of seven hits and six walks in 4.1 innings pitched.
Wheeler finished 2014 with a 7-5 record and 3.09 ERA on the road and finished last season with a 5-5 record and 4.00 ERA on the road, so he’s better than those Yankee Stadium starts have shown.
Opening week will be a test for Wheeler to see if he can continue his success against the Marlins and right the ship against the Yankees.
Phillies shortstop Didi Gregorius will face the Yankees after spending the last five seasons with the team
Gregorius’ eight major league seasons can be summed up as “home-field disadvantage.”
His home run and RBI numbers have been similar, but his averages have been noticeably worse. He hit 60 HR, 214 RBI, and .246/.301/.418 in 429 career home games, compared to 50 HR, 203 RBI, and .280/.325/.441 in 422 away games.
This trend is still visible when focusing on recent time and place.
Last season, Gregorius hit six HR, 24 RBI, and .196/.226/.345 in 37 home games, compared to 10 HR, 37 RBI, and .273/.317/.523 in 45 away games. The difference is night and day.
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It’s no surprise with his five seasons on the Yankees that he’s played 242 more games at Yankee Stadium than the next highest venue, Chase Field. Given the large number of games, it’s also expected that his averages there would be lower than other ballparks.
Gregorius’ .255 BA at the stadium ranks 17th out of 27 ballparks where he’s played at least seven games, while his .746 OPS ranks 16th. Knowing his career home and away split, it will be interesting to see what happens when Citizens Bank Park becomes his new home stadium, where he has one home run and RBI, a .269 BA and .768 OPS in only seven games.
Opening week will be a test for Gregorius to see if he can improve his home hitting in the first five games at Citizens Bank Park, before trying to improve on his averages at Yankee Stadium, where he’s played only once with the road team, going two-for-five (a .400 BA) with a home run and RBI.
The fact that its Marlins and Yankees on opening week makes it an interesting test for new additions Girardi, Wheeler, and Gregorius.