Phillies: 3 reasonable expectations for Zack Wheeler
What can Phillies fans expect from their new starting pitcher Zack Wheeler?
Before the MLB season was put on pause due to a worldwide pandemic, one of the most enticing Phillies stories heading into 2020 was that of Zack Wheeler. Signed to a 5-year deal worth $118 million dollar contract this past offseason, the expectations surrounding the new Philly pitcher were through the roof.
For the record, I really like Wheeler. I love what he brings to the table as a starting pitcher and I love the price for which the Phillies landed him at. Two months ago, I even went as far as to predict this upcoming season to be the best of Wheeler’s career.
With all that said, it’s important to have a little bit of realism when it comes to the Phillies this year. Especially with spring training being cut short, these are what we would call “reasonable” expectation to have for Wheeler as he makes his debut season for the Phillies.
He’s Not Gerrit Cole
Entering into the offseason this past winter, a lot of fans wanted the Phillies to dip their hands back into the “stupid money” bag, and splash hard on an established ace. With guys like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg on the open market, this seemed like a legit possibility.
However, Matt Klentak and the Phillies opted to go for a far cheaper option in Wheeler. Considering Cole got $324 million and Strasburg got $245 million, it’s hard to blame the Phillies for opting with the former New York Met.
While Wheeler is an established starter in this league, and is absolutely oozing with potential, he’s not the second coming of Cliff Lee and he’s definitely not the Phillies “version” of Gerrit Cole. Wheeler was added to sure up the top of the rotation with Aaron Nola. Keep that in mind before freaking out when “Wheels” doesn’t win a Cy Young this year.
Wheeler Might Miss Some Time
Despite showcasing some serious talent when on the mound, a common struggle for Wheeler in the past has been the actual physical task of staying on the mound. Wheeler missed the entirety of both the 2015 and 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, and has visited the 10-day diabled list a few times since due to various minor injuries.
Wheeler is now five full years removed from his nasty elbow injury of 2015, and this likely isn’t causing him problems anymore. He pitched a career-high 195.1 innings in 2019 and has averaged 30 starts a season over the last two years. Wheeler looked more than comfortable seeing his fastball top out in the low 100s, as he set a career high in strikeouts last season as well.
Despite Wheeler’s apparent stable health the last two years, anytime a pitcher is consistently throwing a fastball in the triple-digits, nagging injuries are likely to pop up. The human body simply isn’t designed to be flinging an object that hard, for so many repetitions in a row.
Throw in the fact that Wheeler’s spring training was cut short due to the league’s suspension, it’s possible his joints and ligaments aren’t fully ready to be throwing that hard again.
With all this in mind, it’s not outlandish to assume Wheeler might miss a few starts here and there in 2020. For the most part, this shouldn’t be something to get too concerned about. Having Wheeler for even just 90% of the season is a massive upgrade from the Nick Pivetta’s and the Vince Velasquez’s of the world.
If Wheeler needs a few days off here and there to rest his elbow or his shoulder, that’s totally fine by me.
Wheeler Will Win 12-15 Games
While the first two expectations may seem a little on the “down” side of things, this one should no doubt raise your spirits a bit. Like I mentioned before, I wrote an article earlier in the year detailing how I felt Wheeler would be at his best in 2020, and I overall still stand by this take. With a better staff and team around him now that he’s in Philadelphia, 12 to 15 wins should be on the horizon.
Wheeler isn’t Gerrit Cole, he’s not Stephen Strasburg, heck he’s not even Aaron Nola, but he’s still a really good pitcher. Owning one of the hardest thrown fastballs in the MLB, Wheeler is an absolute nightmare for the opposition when it comes to making solid contact.
More from Phillies News
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
- Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
In fact, Wheeler led all of baseball last year with the lowest percentage of hard-hit balls (24.8%). A number that no doubt factored into the Phillies decision of handing out a 100+ million dollar contract.
Despite a slightly elevated ERA in 2019, Wheeler benefits from impressing in almost every analytic based metric there is to be had in baseball. He threw hard, he missed a lot of bats, his WHIP was low, he didn’t walk a lot of batters, and his FIP was above average.
With the Phillies defense improving via the acquisition of Didi Gregorius at shortstop, and the offense projected to get better as Bryce Harper settles into his new role as a Philadelphia icon, all the stars are lining up for Wheeler to really flourish in his first year. Throw in the fact that the Phillies new coaching staff is headlined by pitching guru Bryan Price, and a 12-15 win season for Wheeler seems completely attainable.