Phillies: 5 bold predictions for the 2020 season
Opening Day is now less than a month away. With a new season of baseball now rapidly closing in, a lot is expected to change for both the Phillies and the rest of the league.
With every new season comes a long list of fun new storylines, upsets and underdogs, and of course some bold (yet realistic) predictions.
Bryce Harper will be in the MVP Conversation
For the most part, Bryce Harper did exactly what was expected of him as the Phillies new franchise superstar in 2019. He led the team in RBIs, home runs, stolen bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. He was consistently the best player on a team that really struggled to ever find their groove offensively.
Harper also began to establish himself as a legit presence defensively. He led the National League in outfield assists last year and was even nominated for a Gold Glove.
Things weren’t necessarily easy for Harper last year either, he spent a lot of time moving around the lineup and rarely saw elite production from the players directly behind or in front of him. Rhys Hoskins tanked in the second half of the season while Jean Segura had a noticeable down year (plus Andrew McCutchen went down early to injury).
Entering 2020, Harper is now backed by a manager who appears to fully appreciate Harper’s value as a middle of the lineup hitter. Girardi has gone out of his way to state he won’t invest in running Bryce as a leadoff hitter at all.
With McCutchen returning and Didi Gregorius entering the fray, Harper should be in a perfect position to put up huge numbers. As he continues to get more and more comfortable playing in Philadelphia, his production should only continue to go up.
Zach Eflin Will be Out of the Rotation
The 26 year righty is one of those guys who fans seem to either absolutely adore, or ruthlessly hate. Despite a good chunk of the Phillies fan base swearing by him, the truth is that Zach Eflin simply isn’t a very good starting pitcher. In a year where the Phillies would like to end their playoff drought, it’s a serious possibility he won’t last the full season as a starter.
Putting it bluntly, Eflin has really struggled as a starter in the majors. Across four seasons and 74 starts, he posts a 4.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.347. He has a career win-loss record of 44.6% and his average WAR per year is that of a substitute-level player.
Last season was technically Eflin’s best year as a starter. He recorded a career low in ERA (4.13) and even threw a complete game shutout. However, while Eflin was good at times, he also experienced one of the biggest midseason collapses we’ve seen from a player in recent years.
Blaming his struggles on a “heavy body”, Eflin went 0-4 in the month of July as a starter. In those games he was only able to pitch a total of 15.2 innings, allowing 27 runs in the process. Yikes.
A lot of fans were quick to give Eflin a pass on his downfall last year, pinning it on bad coaching and the lack of properly utilizing Eflin’s “sinker”. Unfortunately, that theory may be nothing more than a pipe dream. Eflin’s sinker has a career opponent slugging percentage of .351, seven points higher than that of his often criticized fastball.
The Phillies opted to not add any other starters this offseason outside of Zack Wheeler, but with Spencer Howard expected to be on the team at some point this summer, and young guys like Ranger Suarez impressing this spring, Eflin’s time in Philly as a starter may finally come to a close in 2020.
Alec Bohm Will Emerge as the Team’s Clean-up Hitter
Alec Bohm was at the center of Phillies-related discussions this off-season for a variety of reasons. The first and biggest one being that of if the Phillies were going to trade him or not. With powerhouse sluggers like Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado seemingly available, fans were itching for a deal to be completed which would see the #1 ranked 3B prospect be shipped away.
Matt Klentak and the Phillies ultimately decided to not pursue a trade of that nature, opting to instead hang on to their very highly rated infielder.
Bohm has impressed at pretty much every single level thus far, showing elite power at the plate. He hit .325+ in both levels of single-A during the 2019 season. When called up to AA, he performed equally as well, launching 14 homers in just 63 games.
The 23 year old third baseman was invited to the Phillies’ spring training roster down in Clearwater this year, and the results have been as advertised. While a small sample, Bohm is currently batting in the mid-.400s across 17 plate appearances.
All of this will ultimately translate to Bohm being called up to the majors at some point this year, and the team will no doubt be calling on him to contribute early and often.
The Phillies went through a near-nightmare at the cleanup spot last season, as Rhys Hoskins pretty much forgot what the sport of baseball was after the All-Star break. Barring a very legit comeback campaign from the Phillies current first baseman, Bohm could very well be the team’s best option at the clean-up position when he does debut in the big leagues.
Scott Kingery Will be Nominated for a Gold Glove
One of the biggest frustrations surrounding Scott Kingery and his developmental track has been the team’s inability to assign him an “everyday position”. Under Gabe Kapler, Kingery bounced all around both the infield and the outfield, while rarely ever actually playing at his natural position.
All throughout the minor leagues Kingery was always a second baseman by choice, and he was pretty darn good at it. In 2017, Kingery actually won a minor league Gold Glove while also being named the Phillies best overall minor league player that season.
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With Joe Girardi now taking things over as the new manager in Philly, he’s actually gone out of his way to make a point of saying that Kingery does in fact need to have an everyday position. While he was no doubt an awesome utility player the last two seasons, his services will be far better utilized at one spot.
Girardi has already begun experimenting with Jean Segura at third, which should, in theory, free up Kingery to hold down second each and every day.
Kingery has always been an above average defender regardless of where he plays. He made some pretty spectacular throws at third last season and routinely track down difficult balls in the outfield. At just 25 years old he still has years of athleticism ahead of him which will make him a prime candidate to excel as an elite defender in the infield.
Winning a Gold Glove is extremely hard, don’t get it twisted. But Kingery at the very least being nominated for one if he returns to his natural position this year could be a lock.
The Phillies Will Trade for a Closer
Joe Girardi managed the New York Yankees for ten straight seasons. His closing pitchers throughout that decade were Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera (five seasons), 6x All-Star Aroldis Chapman (two seasons), 1x All-Star Rafael Soriano, 1x All-Star David Robertson, and 2016 ALCS MVP Andrew Miller. Quite the list right?
Clearly, Girardi really values the closer position. Over the course of his ten extremely successful years in New York, Girardi always had an elite closing pitcher that he could rely on. While I’m sure he pushed for a move, the Phillies chose to not add any bullpen help this off-season. Instead, opting to roll with their rag-tag bunch of guys led by current closer Hector Neris.
Similar to that of previously mentioned Zach Eflin, Neris is pretty hit or miss when it comes to Phillies fans. For the record, he’s without question a good relief pitcher. He keeps his ERA and WHIP down, rarely gets hurt, and outside of that rough 2018 campaign, he’s been pretty consistent across multiple seasons.
However, where Neris begins to raise some questions is when it comes to the physical act of closing out ball games. Neris had a save percentage which ranked 21st amongst all qualified MLB closers. That’s not very good, especially considering how loaded the NL East is projected to be this year.
Next. Phillies All-Defensive Team. dark
Girardi will no doubt give Neris an honest chance at the 9th inning job, and may even experiment with some of the younger guys in the Phillies pen’, but ultimately it appears he’ll advocate for outside help. With elite closers like Ken Giles projected to be available via trade again this year, don’t be surprised if Girardi spearheads an effort to land an All-Star level arm by this year’s deadline.